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Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM) is still a revenue machinehauling in $85.5 billion last yearbut that headline number hides a much thinner reality. Cost of goods sold ate up a whopping 93% of revenue, and after another $3.7 billion in SG&A, the company was left clinging to a 2.1% net income margin. That's barely any oxygen to breathe. ADM knows it too. Management is now in execution modecutting up to 700 jobs in 2025 with the goal of trimming $750 million in costs. The hope? Streamline operations, widen margins, and shift the company away from low-efficiency bloat. But that's only one side of the pressure cooker.
The other? Trade tensionsand they're hitting ADM right where it hurts. Q1 earnings came in at just $0.70 per share, down from $1.46 last year, marking the company's weakest first-quarter performance in five years. Ag Services and Oilseeds, ADM's biggest business line, saw operating profit crater by 52%. Global crop oversupply and weak processing margins continue to squeeze returns. Add a still-simmering accounting scandal and federal probes into the mix, and investors have every reason to stay cautious. Shares have dropped nearly 30% since the scandal broke in early 2024, although the recent 2.65% bounce at 12.20pm today shows Wall Street was bracing for worse.
ADM reaffirmed its full-year EPS forecast of $4 to $4.75but flagged that it's more likely to land at the low end. Translation: management is still optimistic, but not overly so. With cost cuts underway and its nutrition segment showing signs of life, there's a path forwardbut it's narrow. Investors should keep a close eye on how fast ADM executes, especially in a volatile trade and regulatory environment.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
