In This Article:
Aurubis AG (ETR:NDA) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of €5.0b and statutory earnings per share of €9.53 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Aurubis is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Aurubis are now predicting revenues of €19.3b in 2025. If met, this would reflect an okay 6.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €18.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of €6.32 in 2025. What's really interesting is that while the consensus made a small increase to revenue estimates, it no longer provides an earnings per share estimate. This suggests that revenues are now the focus of the business after this latest result.
View our latest analysis for Aurubis
There's been no real change to the consensus price target of €75.22, with Aurubis seemingly executing in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aurubis at €90.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €54.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Aurubis shareholders.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Aurubis' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Aurubis' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 13% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.8% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.2% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Aurubis is expected to grow much faster than its industry.