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The countdown is on for Target Corporation’s TGT first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings release, set for May 21, before the market opens.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues stands at $24.45 billion, indicating a marginal decline of 0.3% from the same period last year. Meanwhile, earnings are projected at $1.68 per share, suggesting a drop of 17.2% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate for earnings has been revised downward by six cents over the past seven days.
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Target has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 1.5%. In the last reported quarter, the company’s bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 7.1%. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)
Target Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Target Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Target Corporation Quote
What the Zacks Model Predicts About TGT
As investors prepare for TGT’s first-quarter announcement, the question of earnings beat or miss looms. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Target this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.
Target has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) and an Earnings ESP of -9.91%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
What’s Shaping Target’s Q1 Earnings?
Target issued a cautious outlook for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 during its last quarter earnings call. The Minneapolis, MN-based retailer guided significant year-over-year profit pressure in the first quarter compared to the rest of the year due to ongoing consumer uncertainty, a slight decline in net sales for February, tariff concerns and the expected timing of certain expenses throughout the fiscal year.
While the company experienced record Valentine’s Day sales in February, overall performance for the month was subdued. Unseasonably cold weather across the United States impacted apparel sales, and declining consumer confidence resulted in weaker demand for discretionary categories.
This remains a core vulnerability for Target, which derives a significant portion of its revenues from discretionary segments such as home goods, hard lines and apparel. These categories are inherently volatile and susceptible to external shocks. Compounding the uncertainty are persistent risks tied to U.S.-China tariff dynamics. We expect comparable sales to decrease 1%, with the average transaction amount anticipated to drop 1.6%.
Nonetheless, Target’s focus on innovation, digital growth and store enhancements is likely to have contributed to first-quarter performance. By combining a strong physical store presence with expanding e-commerce capabilities, the company improved convenience and flexibility for customers. Initiatives like same-day services and curbside pickup, along with a growing Target Circle membership, are likely to have driven increased traffic and engagement. The success of Target’s private label brands and its balanced product mix are other catalysts. Moreover, growth in platforms like Target Plus and Roundel is likely to have contributed to higher-margin revenue streams, supporting overall business momentum in the first quarter.