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In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. We regret to report that long term JD.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:JD) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 48% in three years, versus a market return of about 36%. More recently, the share price has dropped a further 21% in a month. Importantly, this could be a market reaction to the recently released financial results. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report.
After losing 4.0% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During five years of share price growth, JD.com moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. So it's worth looking at other metrics to try to understand the share price move.
We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 5.5% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. It's probably worth investigating JD.com further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
JD.com is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. If you are thinking of buying or selling JD.com stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst consensus estimates for future profits.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, JD.com's TSR for the last 3 years was -43%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
