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MDA Space Ltd. (TSE:MDA) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 7.8% to hit CA$351m. MDA Space also reported a statutory profit of CA$0.26, which was an impressive 28% above what the analysts had forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
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After the latest results, the eight analysts covering MDA Space are now predicting revenues of CA$1.59b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a huge 30% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 41% to CA$1.14. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CA$1.58b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$1.10 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
See our latest analysis for MDA Space
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of CA$34.31, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values MDA Space at CA$37.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$31.50. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that MDA Space is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that MDA Space's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 42% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 27% p.a. over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.6% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect MDA Space to grow faster than the wider industry.