Based in Los Angeles, AECOM is a global provider of planning, consulting, architectural and engineering design, and construction management services for a broad range of infrastructure projects, including transportation, water, energy, and environmental initiatives.

Many brokerage firms that serve retail and institutional clients maintain data to measure investment sentiment. This can be very valuable when evaluating how the small investor, or even the corporate giants, are feeling about the stock market - and, more importantly, what are they doing with their funds. Charles Schwab is one of those firms, with its Schwab Trading Activity Index, or STAX. STAX is a proprietary, behavior-based index designed to indicate the sentiment of retail investors and has been incorporating data since January 2019. In April, STAX fell to 41.2, down 15% from 48.4 in March and the lowest headline reading since April 2023. The STAX fell every week of the April period, though the first week saw the heaviest selling as STAX fell 11%, the biggest weekly drop since the first week of April 2023. The third week of the four saw only mild net-selling, but selling accelerated again in the final week (ended April 25). On a monthly basis, April's overall STAX plunge of 14.9% was the deepest drop since March 2020, the first full month of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is just another example of what we have been talking about for weeks, namely the similarity between 2025's correction and the pandemic correction. The current STAX reading is closing in on the low level of 37.2 at the end of 2022, right after that bear market bottomed. During the 2023/2024 market advance, the index never got out of neutral territory, peaking at 55.

Aecom is one of the largest global providers of design, engineering, construction, and management services. It serves a broad spectrum of end markets including infrastructure, water, transportation, and energy. Based in Los Angeles, Aecom has a presence in over 150 countries and employs 51,000. The company generated $16.1 billion in sales in fiscal 2024.

In addition to the FOMC meeting and interest-rate decision (and Powell's presser), this is another big week for first-quarter EPS, with results from PLTR, CMI, AMD, ANET, MAR, DUK, NVO, UBER, DIS, ARM, APP, MELI, HUBS, DASH, SHOP, BUD, COP, MCK, and COIN (to name but a few). With almost 75% of S&P 500 companies having reported, 76% have beaten the analyst consensus on EPS and 62% have beaten on revenue. After a torrid nine-day surge, the major indices and many stocks are overbought for the short term, so it wouldn't be surprising to see some near-term consolidation. The five-day relative strength index (RSI) hit 84% on Friday and the five-day exponential moving average (EMA) was 1.7% above the 13-day EMA, the largest spread since November 2022 -- when the S&P 500 (SPX) was emerging from a bear market. We also saw these over-bought levels during the 2022 bear market and months before the actual bottom in October. Another potential reason for a possible market pause is that the major indices are in "no man's land." The SPX is sitting in between its 50-day and 200-day average and, unfortunately, so is the S&P 100, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100. As well, the majors are sitting at or slightly below the key 61.8% retracement of their corrections. Generally, a strong break above this retrace level sends the all-clear for indices to march back to prior highs and possibly to new highs. While the majors all have completed bullish ABC reversals, the targets based on the size of these patterns have been fulfilled. It looks like they are all working on much larger inverse head-and-shoulders patterns -- but more upside is needed. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)