Last week was another great period for stocks. We joked about a possible "V" bottom in recent weeks, but (so far) that is the shape the major indices seem to be tracing out. We have likened the recent decline to events during the pandemic and quoted Mark Twain: "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." The indices have made tremendous progress in a very short period, but we note that some of the best short-term advances have turned out to be bear-market rallies. The above brings us to the current situation, and we have very good comparisons to the pandemic, to times when we were emerging from a bear market, and to rallies in a bear market. No one said forecasting the future was going to be easy! In nine days, the S&P 500 has surged 10.3%, the largest nine-day run since October 2011 (at the end of a nasty correction and during a volatile period). The current gains also were surpassed by the pandemic recovery as well as in March and July of 2009, at the end of the financial crisis. That said, we had similar gains in the fall of 2008, and that was prior to the drop into 2009. On the bull side, the S&P 500 has retraced more than 61.8% of the correction, there have been breadth thrusts, the daily moving-average convergence/divergence (MACD) has turned bullish, and we got a buy signal from the weekly Bollinger Bands when price fell below and then recaptured the lower band. The index is just under its 50-week average at 5,687 and the 200-day is at 5,746. A break over the March 25 high at 5787 would complete a 950-point inverse head-and-shoulders pattern and likely would lead to all-time highs. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

Last week, corporate insiders had little time to react to the tariff-induced plunge in stocks that took place at the very end of the April 4 trading week. As a suspension of tariffs on April 9 sent stocks soaring, a pullback was then evident on April 10, optimism kicked in on April 11, and tariffs were modified for many technology products over the weekend. Traders reacting to the daily news flow likely have unprecedented whiplash. But so do most other investors, insiders included. The current weekly insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research (compiled before the weekend action on technology products) has morphed, and the change is exceedingly bullish. On a scale where any ratio below 2.00 is bullish, the neutral range runs from 2.00 to 6.00, and anything above 6.00 is bearish, Vickers' Total One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio is 1.31 (versus 2.72 last week). Vickers' NYSE One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio is 0.95, versus 2.14, and the Nasdaq One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio is 1.99, versus 3.35. The last time Vickers' one-week data was this bullish was in November of 2023. On a sector basis, insider buying exceeded selling in Consumer Discretionary last week, with shares valued at $38 million bought versus $1.5 million sold. Buying was also notable in Healthcare, as shares valued at $18 million were bought versus $10 million sold, as well as in Financials, Real Estate, and Energy. Selling was the greatest in Industrials, with shares valued at $28 million sold versus $14 million bought, as well as in Information Technology, Utilities, and Consumer Staples (though the volume of transactions in many of these sectors was low). (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

Darden Restaurants, based in Orlando, is a leading U.S. restaurant operator. The company operates more than 1,900 restaurants in the United States and Canada under the Olive Garden, Ruth's Chris Steak House, Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen, Bahama Breeze, Seasons 52, Capital Grille, Longhorn Steakhouse, Eddie V's, and Yard House brand names. Darden has a market cap of about $24.3 billion.

Well, we've finally reached 'Liberation Day' and will see if the stock market has discounted all the rumors. Is it time to buy the news, or is the tariff bite worse than the tariff bark? Will the S&P 500 (SPX) break to new corrective lows, possibly heading a lot closer to 5,000 before we see 6,000 again? We continue to lean toward a contrarian bullish outcome as sentiment is abysmal and it seems like the majority of the investment world is looking for and preparing for the worst. In addition, about 60 of the stocks in the SPX have fallen between 15% and 44% so far in 2025, meaning that there already has been quite a washout in many names. One thing aiding stocks is the drop in Treasury yields and the patterns they have been tracing out over the past five months. The 10-year has dropped from 4.39% to a close on Tuesday at 4.16%. The five-year has fallen from 4.12% to 3.91%. While the declines are small, both maturities are potentially tracing out head-and-shoulders tops. The neckline for the 10-year is in the 4.1%-4.2% area, with the left shoulder, the head, and the right shoulder complete. A break of the neckline could open the door for an initial measured move to 3.7%, and maybe down to 3.5%. The most-recent closing low was in September 2024 at 3.62%. The five-year may already have broken its neckline as it is difficult to draw a horizontal line because the recent low of right shoulder is below the low of the left shoulder low. Anyway, it's possible the five-year drops to the 3.4%-3.5% area. The recent low from September was 3.4%. The one negative about falling rates is that they imply a weakening economy.