Tractor Supply is the largest operator of retail farm and ranch stores in the United States. The company targets recreational farmers and ranchers and has little exposure to commercial and industrial farm operations. Currently, the company operates 2,311 of its namesake banners in 49 states, along with 206 Petsense by Tractor Supply stores. Stores are generally concentrated in rural communities rather than urban and suburban areas. In fiscal 2024, revenue consisted primarily of livestock, equine & agriculture (26%), companion animal (25%), and seasonal & recreation (23%).

The job market remained healthy in April amid concerns it is poised to slow from tariffs, job cuts at government agencies, and falling business and consumer confidence. Employment conditions in the coming months are likely to determine whether the 0.3% drop in first-quarter GDP remains contained or becomes a recession. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. economy generated 177,000 nonfarm jobs in April, above our near-consensus forecast of 130,000. March's payrolls were revised lower by 43,000 and February by 15,000. The April result and the revisions to past results raised the three-month average to 155,000 from 152,000. Nonfarm payrolls are one of the indicators that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) says it watches closely in assessing whether the U.S. is in a recession. We believe the monthly increase in April payrolls and 1.2% growth on a year-over-year basis are encouraging. The BLS diffusion index indicated that more than half of 250 private industries are hiring. The April unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings increased six cents month to month and are 3.8% higher year over year, in line with our estimate. The average workweek remained at 34.3 hours. Employment continued to trend up in healthcare, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and social assistance. Employment showed little change in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; information; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services. The manufacturing sector lost 1,000 jobs. Motor vehicles and parts were down 4,700. Healthcare added 51,000, while federal government employment fell by 9,000. After the report, stock futures rose, as did the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Based on futures trading, the probability that the funds target will remain unchanged at next week's meeting remained above 90% and expectations for a June cut declined to 46% from 58%.

Tractor Supply Co., with 2024 sales of $14.9 billion, offers a broad range of items for home, land, pet, and livestock owners who generally have above average income and a below average cost of living. TSCO, based in Brentwood, Tennessee, has five product categories: Livestock, Equine & Agriculture (26% of sales); Companion Animal (pet) (25% of sales); Seasonal & Recreation Products (23%); Hardware, Tools, and Truck (16%); and Clothing, Gift & Decorating (10%). More than 85% of the company's customers have pets and animals. The company ended 2024 with more than 2,500 stores in 49 states: 2,296 under the Tractor Supply banner and 206 Petsense stores. Sixty-one percent of stores are freestanding, and 39% are in shopping centers. Texas has 261 stores. North Carolina has 122; Florida, 115; Georgia, 116; Pennsylvania, 114; Michigan, 109; Tennessee, 105; and Ohio, 105. Stores are typically an hour, or more, outside of major cities. Digital sales are about 8% of the company's total. The goal is 10%-12%. Formed in 1982 from the assets of a catalog company that had been selling farm supplies since 1938, Tractor Supply is converting its older stores to larger formats (17,000-19,000 square feet) and opening new smaller-format stores and distribution centers beyond its core Southern and Midwestern markets. The company has more than 50,000 employees. TSCO shares are a component of the S&P 500. The Company's IPO was in May 1994. TSCO's year ends on the last Saturday of December, which is December 27 in 2025.

Stocks are up at midday, with the Nasdaq rallying on strong tech earnings. Weekly jobless claims reported this morning showed a sharp increase. The number reported for the week was 241,000, which compares to readings closer to 200,000 for most of the year and the four-week moving average of 226,000. We're not worried yet about the economy, despite yesterday's report that GDP outright declined in 1Q, but these trends are beginning to head in a negative direction. Tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report will indeed be a critical indicator.