We are raising our intermediate-term technical outlook back to bullish from neutral. The major indices all traced out bullish ABC reversal patterns from April 8 until April 22 and have taken on the look of a "V" bottom. After the massive gains on Monday, when the S&P 500 (SPX) soared 3.1%, the Nasdaq rocketed 4.2%, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) surged 3.9%, the three indices broke convincingly above their flat 200-day and 50-week averages for the first time since losing these key supports in early March. As well, the indices all broke well above the key 61.8% retracement of their correction/bear markets. They also completed large and compact bullish inverse head-and-shoulders formations. This all suggests a run at least back to the earlier all-time highs, and possibly higher. Some of the key intermediate-term signals that have turned bullish -- and that we have discussed recently -- include a number of breadth thrusts usually seen at key market bottoms; an absolute destruction in market sentiment in March and April; a buy signal from the weekly Bollinger Band (BB) chart, as the SPX lost, then recovered, the lower BB; very large monthly bullish candlesticks for the major indices; and new all-time highs for the major advance/decline lines. The SPX completed a 950-point reversal and, based on its size, we estimate a minimum measured move to the 6,450-6,740 region, or 11%-15% higher than Monday's close. For the QQQ (507), we project a minimum advance to 557-585, or a 10%-15% move. The next obstacle is the all-time highs of 6,144 for the SPX and 539 for the QQQ. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its latest Open Market Committee meeting yesterday and, as expected, maintained its fed funds target rate at the 4.25-4.50% level. This was the third consecutive meeting at which the central bank held policy steady after cutting rates three times in late 2024. The non-decision indicates that the Fed still has concerns over lingering inflation and is keeping an eye on the overall economy. Further, the central bankers, like the rest of the country, are uncertain about the potential impact on GDP and prices from the recent tariff initiatives. CPI inflation has indeed fallen from readings above 9.0% in 2022 to readings below 3.0% -- but lately has struggled to extend its downward trend toward the central bank's goal of 2.0%. Meanwhile, though, the unemployment rate is still historically low, even as GDP growth dipped into negative territory last quarter due to a quirky import number. Based on the healthy employment environment, the economy is not in dire need of lower rates. Yet. Yesterday's meeting did not include any projection materials. At the Fed's meeting in March, the central bankers updated their economic and interest-rate forecasts. These call for economic growth in the 1.8%-2.0% range through 2027, and an inflation rate down to 2.0% by 2027. At that point, the Fed anticipates its federal funds target rate to be 3.0%-3.25%, implying a real yield of about 1.25%. That's a forecast for five rate cuts over the next 30 months.

3M is a diversified Industrial company, with worldwide operations organized into four segments. The stock is a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500. Headquartered in Saint Paul, Minnesota, the company employs approximately 85,000 people.

After a tough Monday, stocks fully reversed on Tuesday, this based on yet new headlines coming from the White House. So the game of cat and mouse continues, with many retirement accounts caught in the middle. The S&P 500 (SPX) and S&P 100 popped 2.5%, while the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) ripped higher by 2.7%. Are we any closer to settling this bull/bear standoff? Probably not. Market breadth was strong on Tuesday, with 2,490 more NYSE advancers than decliners. The reading of NYSE advances/total issues was strong at 89%, while NYSE advancing volume/total volume was at 81%. Since April 4, we have had four days of strong breadth and four days of weak breadth. If strong days take over and weak days disappear, that would be a good sign that the bulls are taking back control from the bears. We think gold is topping and the yellow metal traced out an ugly bearish engulfing candle-stick on Tuesday. But bitcoin bottomed on April 8 and has been on a pretty good run ever since. Bitcoin reached $91,800 on Tuesday, up from a recent closing low of $76,300, or about 20%. We have seen a number of daily gains with above-average volume, a good sign of institutional accumulation. The crypto currency looks to have completed a five-wave decline and has broken its bear-market trendline off the peaks since earlier this year. In addition, price has jumped above chart resistance at $89,000, with the next piece at $96,000. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)