As the world's largest parcel delivery company, UPS manages a massive fleet of more than 500 planes and 100,000 vehicles, along with many hundreds of sorting facilities, to deliver an average of about 22 million packages per day to residences and businesses across the globe. UPS' domestic US package operations generate around 65% of total revenue, while international package makes up 20%. Air and ocean freight forwarding and contract logistics make up the remainder.

As the world's largest parcel delivery company, UPS manages a massive fleet of more than 500 planes and 100,000 vehicles, along with many hundreds of sorting facilities, to deliver an average of about 22 million packages per day to residences and businesses across the globe. UPS' domestic US package operations generate around 65% of total revenue while international package makes up 20%. Air and ocean freight forwarding and contract logistics make up the remainder.

The yield curve is no longer inverted, which is a positive signal for economic growth. But according to our projections, the curve may flatten in the quarters ahead as the global economy cools in the wake of the Trump trade war. There is little doubt that the U.S. economy has been running at an impressive speed in recent quarters, with an average growth rate of 2.9% since late 2022. That's safely above the long-term growth expectation for U.S. GDP of 1.8%-2.0%. Given a low unemployment rate and two recent strong years in the stock market, the yield curve should be upward sloping. But the impact of trade wars is expected to slow the growth rate going forward, as companies face rising costs for raw materials as well as the difficult decision on whether to raise prices or endure lower margins. Over time, we anticipate that the innovative U.S. economy can adjust to the new cost realities and achieve productivity gains that will keep growth intact. We expect the fallout from the trade wars and a slowing economy will have an impact across the yield curve. At the long end, global trading partners facing higher export costs may pull assets out of the Treasury market, keeping rates in the 4.5% range. At the short end, the Federal Reserve's hands may be tied for a time while the central bank waits to see whether higher costs are here to stay. The result, in our view, will be a flatter yield curve that points toward slower economic growth over the intermediate term.

The yield curve is no longer inverted, which is a positive signal for economic growth. But according to our projections, the curve may flatten in the quarters ahead as the global economy cools in the wake of the Trump trade war. There is little doubt that the U.S. economy has been running at an impressive speed in recent quarters, with an average growth rate of 2.9% since late 2022. That's safely above the long-term growth expectation for U.S. GDP of 1.8%-2.0%. Given a low unemployment rate and two recent strong years in the stock market, the yield curve should be upward sloping. But the impact of trade wars is expected to slow the growth rate going forward, as companies face rising costs for raw materials as well as the difficult decision on whether to raise prices or endure lower margins. Over time, we anticipate that the innovative U.S. economy can adjust to the new cost realities and achieve productivity gains that will keep growth intact. We expect the fallout from the trade wars and a slowing economy will have an impact across the yield curve. At the long end, global trading partners facing higher export costs may pull assets out of the Treasury market, keeping rates in the 4.5% range. At the short end, the Federal Reserve's hands may be tied for a time while the central bank waits to see whether higher costs are here to stay. The result, in our view, will be a flatter yield curve that points toward slower economic growth over the intermediate term.