Deutsche Telekom merged its T-Mobile USA unit with prepaid specialist MetroPCS in 2013, and that firm merged with Sprint in 2020, creating the second-largest wireless carrier in the US. T-Mobile now serves 80 million postpaid and 25 million prepaid phone customers, equal to around 30% of the US retail wireless market. The firm entered the fixed-wireless broadband market aggressively in 2021 and now serves 7 million residential and business customers. In addition, T-Mobile provides wholesale services to resellers.

T-Mobile US is a facilities-based wireless telephone carrier. The company is the result of the merger of Deutsche Telekom's T-Mobile U.S. wireless division with small regional wireless carrier MetroPCS on April 30, 2013. T-Mobile acquired Sprint in April, 2020 and Ka'ena Corp. (Mint Mobile) in May, 2024. The company offers national wireless voice and data services to consumers and businesses in the U.S, and simple no-contract service plans.

Stocks are lower at midday on signs that the U.S. economy is slowing faster than expected. For 1Q, consumers and businesses scooped up imports tilting the trade balance and lowering GDP. We got a big hint that this was coming in the Trade Deficit in Goods numbers out yesterday proving the rush to buy imports before expected price increases due to tariffs. The advance estimate for GDP showed a decline of 0.3%, the first contraction in 3 years. Key inflation data out this morning shows the pace of inflation is slowing. Headline PCE slowed to 2.3% in March versus 2.7% the month before. Core PCE decelerated to 2.6% compared to 3.0%. On a month-by-month basis, both measures came in at 0.0% changed. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is 4.16%. Oil is at $60 per barrel.

The Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, the PCE Price Index, will be released by the BEA tomorrow. The index differs from the better-known Consumer Price Index (CPI) because its composition is changed more frequently and it is thus quicker to reflect real-time pricing fluctuations. In the most-recent report, through February, PCE inflation reportedly grew 2.5% year over year; by comparison, the latest CPI report, through March, had inflation rising 2.4%. Core PCE, which removes volatile food and energy prices, rose at a rate of 2.8% in the latest month. Our PCE forecasts call for steady-to-lower readings for March: 2.2% for the headline number and for 2.5% for the core reading, as lingering inflation in certain sticky-priced services remains a challenge as the Fed strives to achieve its 2% goal. Overall, inflation in this cycle peaked in summer 2022 and has been on a fairly consistent downward trek since then. We track 20 inflation measures on a monthly basis. On average, they are indicating that prices are rising at a 2.7% rate year over year, down 50 basis points from a month-ago. The numbers are volatile and distorted somewhat by swings within the volatile Producer Price Inflation report. Focusing on core inflation -- which we obtain by averaging Core CPI, market-based PCE Ex-Food & Energy (from the GDP report), the five-year forward inflation expectation rate, the 10-year TIPs Break-even Interest Rate and the Fed's favorite core PCE Price Index -- our reading is 2.55%, lower by five basis points month over month. Given inflation trends, we expect the Fed to remain on the sideline for the first half of 2025 and then implement two rate cuts in 2H24, with the ultimate goal of aligning the fed funds rate to about 100 basis points above the long-term inflation rate within the next 8-10 quarters.