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As you might know, First Financial Bancorp. (NASDAQ:FFBC) recently reported its first-quarter numbers. Revenues of US$149m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$0.44, missing estimates by 2.2%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
See our latest analysis for First Financial Bancorp
Following last week's earnings report, First Financial Bancorp's six analysts are forecasting 2022 revenues to be US$638.3m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$2.10, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$638.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.95 in 2022. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
The consensus price target was unchanged at US$26.10, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on First Financial Bancorp, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$28.00 and the most bearish at US$26.00 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that First Financial Bancorp's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2022 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that First Financial Bancorp is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around First Financial Bancorp's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$26.10, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.