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Investors in ITM Power Plc (LON:ITM) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.4% to close at UK£0.37 following the release of its half-year results. Revenues were in line with expectations, at UK£16m, while statutory losses ballooned to UK£0.047 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
See our latest analysis for ITM Power
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 16 analysts covering ITM Power is for revenues of UK£21.7m in 2025. This implies a noticeable 6.1% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to ameliorate slightly, reducing to UK£0.062. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of UK£21.7m and losses of UK£0.063 per share in 2025.
The consensus price target was unchanged at UK£0.64, suggesting that the business - losses and all - is executing in line with estimates. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on ITM Power, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at UK£1.70 and the most bearish at UK£0.24 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 12% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 32% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 15% per year. It's pretty clear that ITM Power's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that ITM Power's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.