Beach Energy Limited (ASX:BPT) Is Going Strong But Fundamentals Appear To Be Mixed : Is There A Clear Direction For The Stock?

editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Sat, Mar 1, 2025, 3:19 PM 4 min read

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Beach Energy is:

2.6% = AU$92m ÷ AU$3.5b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. That means that for every A$1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated A$0.03 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Beach Energy's Earnings Growth And 2.6% ROE

It is hard to argue that Beach Energy's ROE is much good in and of itself. Even compared to the average industry ROE of 13%, the company's ROE is quite dismal. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 38% seen by Beach Energy over the last five years is not surprising. We believe that there also might be other aspects that are negatively influencing the company's earnings prospects. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

So, as a next step, we compared Beach Energy's performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 33% over the last few years.

past-earnings-growth — ASX:BPT Past Earnings Growth March 1st 2025

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. If you're wondering about Beach Energy's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Beach Energy Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

When we piece together Beach Energy's low three-year median payout ratio of 11% (where it is retaining 89% of its profits), calculated for the last three-year period, we are puzzled by the lack of growth. This typically shouldn't be the case when a company is retaining most of its earnings. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For example, the company's business may be deteriorating.

Moreover, Beach Energy has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 47% over the next three years. Regardless, the future ROE for Beach Energy is speculated to rise to 14% despite the anticipated increase in the payout ratio. There could probably be other factors that could be driving the future growth in the ROE.

Conclusion

Overall, we have mixed feelings about Beach Energy. Even though it appears to be retaining most of its profits, given the low ROE, investors may not be benefitting from all that reinvestment after all. The low earnings growth suggests our theory correct. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.