Mortgage rates to stay higher for longer amid high inflation

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Homeowners are facing a new challenge as mortgage rates are set to remain elevated for an extended period, following confirmation from chancellor Rachel Reeves in her spring statement that inflation will average 3.2% this year.

The announcement is a significant revision from the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) earlier forecast of 2.6%, and it has raised concerns that interest rates will now decrease more slowly.

The average rate for a two-year fixed mortgage stands at 5.19%, while five-year fixed deals average 5.31%, according to data from Uswitch.

The Bank of England held its interest rate at 4.5% this month, after warning that global economic uncertainty has "intensified".

This is the lowest level for rates in more than 18 months, following a reduction from 4.75% in February — the third such cut since August 2024.

The main inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), stood at 2.8% in the 12 months to February 2025, a slight decrease from the previous month. While this marks a significant drop from the peak of 11.1% seen in October 2022, it remains well above the Bank of England’s target of 2%.

Justin Moy, managing director at EHF Mortgages, told The i Paper: “Those looking for a quick cut to mortgage rates will be disappointed by Wednesday’s statement. With no additional support for homeowners, the mantra ‘higher for longer’ will rattle mortgage borrowers for the next few years.

“Confidence and stability still need to be proven by the government, the economy has a number of tax rises to swallow and if growth goes into reverse, that would be the trigger for deeper cuts to rates. But in the meantime, there isn’t a lot of cheer for mortgage holders.”

Read more: Key takeaways from Rachel Reeves’ spring statement

Critics were quick to respond, including shadow chancellor Mel Stride, who said: "Inflation, which was down to 2% bang on target on the very day of the last general election under a Conservative government. We are now told this year we'll be running at twice the level of the forecast under ourselves in 2024. This is going to mean prices bearing down on households and on businesses, right across the country, because of her choices."

The spring statement also provided little relief for the housing market, with no new measures introduced to support buyers. There was no extension of the stamp duty concession, which is set to expire this week, and no new mortgage schemes for first-time buyers.

Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients: “The spring statement was underwhelming as far as the housing market is concerned.