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Big Oil majors have no plans to scale back their budgets despite oil prices softening and more barrels poised to hit the market. That may sound reckless in a bearish environment, but it’s anything but. With demand picking up in Asia and OPEC+ preparing to unwind production cuts faster than expected, Exxon, Chevron, Shell, and TotalEnergies are digging in—ready to pump more, not less.
ExxonMobil reported a decline in net profits for the first quarter to $7.7 billion, down from $8.2 billion a year ago. Chevron’s earnings fell more sharply to $3.8 billion from $5.4 billion, and Shell saw a 28% drop in Q1 profit. TotalEnergies reported a more modest 5% dip. Still, none of these companies flagged any spending cuts or strategic retreats. In fact, they’re doing the opposite: raising production targets and sticking to growth plans.
TotalEnergies saw its oil and gas output rise 4% in Q1, boosted by ramp-ups in Brazil, the U.S., Malaysia, and Argentina. Exxon is targeting a 7% production increase for the year. Chevron is aiming for 9%. Even Shell, while more cautious, continues aggressive buybacks and refuses to blink on capex.
The only supermajor to tweak its plans was BP—and even that move came under pressure from Elliott Management, the activist investor calling for deeper cuts and a clearer strategic direction. BP’s Q1 results showed weaker-than-expected earnings, sagging cash flow, and rising net debt—leaving it as the outlier in an otherwise unflinching group.
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And now comes the real test: OPEC+ is reportedly planning to dump as much as 2.2 million barrels per day back into the market by November. According to sources cited by Bloomberg, the Saudis have lost patience with serial quota-busters Iraq and Kazakhstan. But there’s a twist—many of the companies responsible for Kazakhstan’s overproduction are Western majors: Chevron, Exxon, Shell, and TotalEnergies.
That’s right—Big Oil is now part of the cartel’s internal compliance headache.
“The presence of U.S. companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron in Kazakhstan could play a key role in driving the supply growth,” said Rystad Energy analyst Mukesh Sahdev. “This raises questions about the potential for U.S. backing to pressure OPEC+ into adding more barrels to the market.”
Which begs the real question: is this shaping up to be a good old-fashioned supply war?
There are certainly signs. China’s crude imports hit a 20-month high in March, jumping to over 12 million barrels per day. That surge reversed the slump seen in January and February and underscored Beijing’s appetite for bargain barrels. India, too, boosted imports from Russia to a nine-month high. When prices fall, the world’s biggest buyers step in.