Results from some of the Magnificent 7 names last week reignited the AI trade. Both Meta and Microsoft reported after-the-bell on Wednesday, blowing past analyst estimates. The party continued on Thursday when both Amazon and Apple posted impressive results for the quarter, but their forward looking guidance was less than rosy and highlighted how tariffs are impacting big tech companies that are in the business of selling physical goods.
Meta Platforms reported Q1 earnings per share (EPS) of $6.43, more than a dollar higher than what Wall Street analysts were expecting.[1] Revenues of $42.3B were one billion higher than anticipated.[2] Despite concerns about how current trade policies might impact the mega tech names, Meta CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, offered comforting words that they are well positioned to navigate the macroeconomic uncertainty.[3]
Similarly, Microsoft beat expectations on both the top and bottom-line in part due to the strength of their Azure cloud segment.[4] They also forecasted that growth in that segment will continue to drive overall strength, with Azure expected to grow 34 - 35% in 2025 in constant currency.[5]
But it wasn't just past performance, or even future guidance for growth, that stood out from those reports. Instead, it was the spending plans that investors likely found to be promising. Microsoft increased their capex forecast for 2025, now anticipated to put roughly $80B into the buildout of their AI data centers.[6] Meta also raised their 2025 spending plan to $72B from the $60 - $65B announced in February.[7] These massive investments seem positive for the future and growth of AI. Microsoft stock rose 9% in the trading period after their report, while Meta was up 5%.
The story was a little different for Amazon and Apple which reported Thursday. While both beat analyst expectations on the top and bottom-line, it was outlooks for 2025 that were guarded. Amazon listed an array of headwinds that would impact their bottom-line, including recessionary fears, global economic conditions and tariffs. As a result the company forecasted operating income for Q2 would be in the range of $13B - $17.5B, below Wall Street's expectation of $17.8B.[8] None of us knows exactly where tariffs will settle or when, commented CEO Andy Jassy, further saying future results are inherently unpredictable.[9]
Similarly, Apple cited tariffs as a major headwind in the current quarter, expected to impact profits to the tune of $900M. When analysts asked for guidance on the tariff impact in the back half of the year, CEO Tim Cook declined to comment as he didn't want to predict the future.[10]
With 72% of the S&P 500 having reported for Q1 at this point, the blended EPS growth rate stands at 12.8%, above the 10.1% reading from last week. This would make it the second consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth.[11]
On Deck this Week
Peak earnings season continues this week with 92 S&P 500 names slated to release results. We'll hear more on AI demand when Palantir reports on Monday, and AMD on Tuesday. Closely watched names such as Uber and Walt Disney are out with results on Wednesday, and we hear more from the Consumer Staples sector when Archer Daniels Midland, Molson Coors, and Clorox report throughout the week. Energy sector constituents ConocoPhillips and Devon Energy are also scheduled to release results for Q1.
Big Tech Breathes Life into Q1 Earnings
Source: Wall Street Horizon
Outlier Earnings Dates This Week
Academic research shows that when a company confirms a quarterly earnings date that is later than when they have historically reported, it's typically a sign that the company will share negative news on their upcoming call, while moving a release date earlier suggests the opposite.[12]
This week, we get results from a number of large companies on major indexes that have pushed their Q1 2025 earnings dates outside of their historical norms. Eight companies within the S&P 500 confirmed outlier earnings dates for this week, all of which are later than usual and therefore have negative DateBreaks Factors*. Those names are Ford Motor Company (F), The Clorox Company (NYSE:CLX), IQVIA Holdings (IQV), Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE:ADM), Johnson Controls (JCI), Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT), ConocoPhillips (COP) and Molson Coors Beverage Company (NYSE:TAP).
* Wall Street Horizon DateBreaks Factor: statistical measurement of how an earnings date (confirmed or revised) compares to the reporting company's 5-year trend for the same quarter. Negative means the earnings date is confirmed to be later than historical average while Positive is earlier.
It's interesting to see a handful of names in the Consumer Staples space delaying their earnings, but Clorox, Archer Daniels Midland and Molson Coors are all on our list for this week. The Consumer Staples sector tends to do well in uncertain times, as these companies sell products that are necessary for daily living and therefore are seen as a safe haven. However, these names might have two major headwinds to contend with in 2025.
The first is a wavering consumer that appears to have become more value driven, as seen in recent consumer sentiment reports from the University of Michigan[13] and the Conference Board, which found consumer confidence at a 13 year low.[14] Even as consumer spending has generally softened in 2025, with the exception of the better-than-expected Retail Sales report from March due to consumers front-loading purchases ahead of tariff impacts[15], it hasn't weakened substantially, as consumers still have had the support of a strong labor market. However, indicators on the strength of the US job market have been mixed as of late.
On Thursday, initial jobless claims came in at seasonally adjusted 241,000 for the week ended April 26, up 18,000 from the prior period. Continuing claims, or jobless claims for those continuing to receive benefits, rose to 1.92M, the highest level since November 13, 2021.[16] On a more upbeat note, April US nonfarm payrolls showed a monthly increase of 177,000 on Friday, higher than the Dow Jones estimate for 133,000. The unemployment rate stayed the same at 4.2%.[17]
The second possible issue for these Consumer Staples companies is that recently implemented tariffs could increase input prices, causing them to have to increase costs for a consumer that is already weary. We've already heard from others in the space, such as General Mills[18] and Hershey[19], that have warned of rising prices due to tariffs, as well as the consumer pullback from non-necessary staples such as snacking categories.
Q1 Earnings Wave
The second week of peak earnings season begins this week and continues until May 16, with each week expected to see over 2,000 reports. Currently, May 8 is predicted to be the most active day with 1,174 companies anticipated to report. Thus far, only 70% of companies have confirmed their earnings date (out of our universe of 11,000+ global names), so this is subject to change. The remaining dates are estimated based on historical reporting data.
Big Tech Breathes Life into Q1 Earnings
Source: Wall Street Horizon
1 Meta Reports First Quarter 2025 Results, April 30, 2025, https://s21.q4cdn.com2 Meta Reports First Quarter 2025 Results, April 30, 2025, https://s21.q4cdn.com3 Meta Platforms First Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call, April 30, 2025, https://s21.q4cdn.com4 Microsoft Earnings Release FY25 Q3, April 30, 2025, https://www.microsoft.com5 Microsoft FY23 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call, April 30, 2025, https://view.officeapps.live.com6 Microsoft FY23 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call, April 30, 2025, https://view.officeapps.live.com7 Meta Platforms First Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call, April 30, 2025, https://s21.q4cdn.com8 Amazon Announces First Quarter Results, May 1, 2025, https://s2.q4cdn.com9 Amazon Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript, May 1, 2025, https://seekingalpha.com10 Apple Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript, May 1, 2025, https://seekingalpha.com11 Earnings Insight, FactSet, John Butters, May 2, 2025, https://advantage.factset.com12 Time Will Tell: Information in the Timing of Scheduled Earnings News, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Eric C. So, Travis L. Johnson, Dec, 2018, https://papers.ssrn.com13 Survey of Consumers, University of Michigan, April 2025, https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/14 US Consumer Confidence Plunged Again in April, The Conference Board, April 29, 2025, https://www.conference-board.org15 March 2025 Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, US Census Bureau, April 16, 2025, https://www.census.gov16 Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, US Department of Labor, Thursday, May 1, 2025, https://www.dol.gov17 April Employment Situation Summary, May 2, 2025, https://www.bls.gov18 General Mills Reports Fiscal 2025 Third-quarter Results and Updates Full-year Outlook, March 19, 2025, https://investors.generalmills.com19 Hershey Reports First-Quarter 2025 Financial Results, May 1, 2025, https://hershey.gcs-web.com
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