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Shareholders in Orla Mining Ltd. (TSE:OLA) may be thrilled to learn that the analysts have just delivered a major upgrade to their near-term forecasts. Consensus estimates suggest investors could expect greatly increased statutory revenues and earnings per share, with the analysts modelling a real improvement in business performance.
Following the upgrade, the latest consensus from Orla Mining's three analysts is for revenues of US$767m in 2025, which would reflect a major 144% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to jump 2,284% to US$0.33. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$619m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.26 in 2025. There has definitely been an improvement in perception recently, with the analysts substantially increasing both their earnings and revenue estimates.
See our latest analysis for Orla Mining
Despite these upgrades, the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$6.14, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Orla Mining at US$6.95 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$5.03. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Orla Mining shareholders.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Orla Mining's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Orla Mining's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 104% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 67% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 16% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Orla Mining is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us from these new estimates is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, with improved earnings power expected for next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, and sales are expected to grow faster than the wider market. The lack of change in the price target is puzzling, but with a serious upgrade to next year's earnings expectations, it might be time to take another look at Orla Mining.