Cheshire 2020-1 plc -- Moody's assigns provisional ratings to RMBS Notes to be issued by Cheshire 2020-1 plc

Rating Action: Moody's assigns provisional ratings to RMBS Notes to be issued by Cheshire 2020-1 plc

Global Credit Research - 11 Aug 2020

London, 11 August 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has assigned the following provisional ratings to notes to be issued by Cheshire 2020-1 plc:

....GBP 190.1M Class A Notes due August 2045, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)

....GBP 10.6M Class B Notes due August 2045, Assigned (P)Aa3 (sf)

....GBP 5.9M Class C Notes due August 2045, Assigned (P)A3 (sf)

....GBP 5.9M Class D Notes due August 2045, Assigned (P)Baa3 (sf)

....GBP 8.2M Class E Notes due August 2045, Assigned (P)B1 (sf)

....GBP 8.2M Class F Notes due August 2045, Assigned (P)Caa3 (sf)

The GBP 5.9M Class Z Notes due August 2045, the GBP 12.4M VRR Loan Note due August 2045, the Class S1 Certificate due 2045, the Class S2 Certificate due 2045 and the Class Y Certificate due 2045 have not been rated by Moody's.

The Notes are backed by a pool of UK non-conforming residential mortgage loans primarily originated by Future Mortgages Limited (NR). The pool will be acquired at closing from Dukinfield PLC prior to its August 2020 Optional Redemption Date by Citibank N.A., London Branch (Aa3/P-1; Aa3 (cr)). As of 31 May 2020, the securitised portfolio consists of 2,440 mortgage loans with a current balance of GBP 252.5 million. The VRR Loan Note is a risk retention Note which receives 5% of all available receipts, while the remaining Notes and certificates receive 95% of the available receipts.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The ratings of the Notes are based on an analysis of the characteristics of the underlying mortgage pool, sector wide and originator specific performance data, protection provided by credit enhancement, the roles of external counterparties and the structural features of the transaction.

Moody's determined the MILAN Credit Enhancement (CE) of 20% and the portfolio expected loss of 5.5% as input parameters for Moody's cash flow model, which is based on a probabilistic lognormal distribution.

Portfolio expected loss of 5.5%: This is in line with UK non-conforming sector average and is based on Moody's assessment of the lifetime loss expectation for the pool taking into account: (i) the collateral performance of Dukinfield PLC to date; (ii) 27.8% of loans that were previously restructured and 12.6% of loans in arrears in the portfolio; (iii) the current macroeconomic environment in the UK and the potential impact of future interest rate rises on the performance of the mortgage loans; and (iv) benchmarking with comparable transactions in the UK market.