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One simple way to benefit from the stock market is to buy an index fund. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, Coles Group Limited (ASX:COL) shareholders have seen the share price rise 46% over three years, well in excess of the market return (18%, not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven't been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 16% , including dividends .
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
See our latest analysis for Coles Group
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During three years of share price growth, Coles Group achieved compound earnings per share growth of 4.7% per year. In comparison, the 13% per year gain in the share price outpaces the EPS growth. This indicates that the market is feeling more optimistic on the stock, after the last few years of progress. It is quite common to see investors become enamoured with a business, after a few years of solid progress.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
This free interactive report on Coles Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Coles Group the TSR over the last 3 years was 64%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Coles Group shareholders have gained 16% (in total) over the last year. And yes, that does include the dividend. But the three year TSR of 18% per year is even better. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Coles Group better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Coles Group .