Centamin plc (LON:CEY) last week reported its latest half-year results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$426m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Centamin surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.077 per share, a notable 10% above expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for Centamin
Following the latest results, Centamin's nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$882.2m in 2023. This would be an okay 6.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 103% to US$0.14. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$882.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.12 in 2023. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a nice gain to earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.
The consensus price target was unchanged at UK£1.33, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Centamin, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at UK£1.51 and the most bearish at UK£0.98 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Centamin's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Centamin's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 12% annualised growth to the end of 2023 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.5% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 0.03% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Centamin to grow faster than the wider industry.