Earnings begin — What you need to know in markets this week

After a June jobs report that topped expectations, markets will turn their focus this week to the beginning of second quarter earnings season.

Financial stocks will be the focus this week, with Friday morning expected to be jam-packed as results from PNC (PNC), JP Morgan (JPM), Citi (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) all expected out.

Elsewhere in earnings this week markets will get results from Pepsi (PEP) on Tuesday and Delta Air Lines (DAL) on Thursday.

JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon
JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon

Right now, Wall Street analysts expect earnings for the S&P 500 to rise 6.5% in the second quarter, and according to FactSet expectations for the second quarter have been cut by the least since 2014. Additionally, FactSet notes that S&P 500 companies have exceeded actual estimated earnings by 4.2%.

Julian Emanuel, strategist at UBS, notes that with expectations so high for the financial sector — which has taken up a leadership role in the market amid weakness in big-cap tech names — better-than-expected earnings may not be enough to drive the sector.

Emanuel adds that price action from big financial stocks as well as the “FAAMG” tech stocks which have powered the market “will hold the key for whether the current ‘Summer Squall’ in Tech will continue to pressure the broad market.”

Earnings expectations may be too high coming into the second quarter. (Source: UBS)
Earnings expectations may be too high coming into the second quarter. (Source: UBS)

On the economic data side, we’ll get a check on consumer spending with retail sales, a check on inflation, and an update on job openings in the U.S. during the week.

Economic calendar

  • Monday: Labor market conditions index, June (2.3 previously); Consumer credit, May ($13.35 billion expected; $8.2 billion previously)

  • Tuesday: NFIB small business optimism, June (104.4 expected; 104.5 previously); Job openings and labor turnover survey, May (6.044 million previously)

  • Wednesday: Federal Reserve Beige Book

  • Thursday: Producer prices, June (+0% expected; 0% previously); Initial jobless claims (245,000 expected; 248,000 previously)

  • Friday: Consumer prices, June (+0.1% expected; -0.1% previously); “Core” consumer prices year-on-year, June (+1.7% expected; +1.7% previously); Retail sales, June (+0.2% expected; -0.3% previously); Industrial production, June (+0.3% expected; 0% previously); University of Michigan consumer sentiment, preliminary July (95 expected; 95.1 previously); Business inventories, May (+0.3% expected; -0.2% previously)

Jobs reaction

Overall, Friday’s jobs report was a relative non-event.

Markets rallied after the report, but given the decline we saw in markets on Thursday and the rise in bond yields we saw on Friday, a straight line can’t be drawn from the numbers and what happened in financial markets during the day.