(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Over the past 10 days, hundreds of thousands of people have poured on to the streets of Belarus, protesting the result of a rigged election and demanding an end to Alexander Lukashenko’s repressive 26-year rule. Europe and the United States should lend a hand.
This needs to be done judiciously. Western countries have limited influence over the Minsk government, which relies heavily on Russia for trade and security. Russian President Vladimir Putin endorsed the election results, but he has so far resisted Lukashenko’s appeals for Russian help in quashing the protests. If he concludes that Europe and the U.S. are encouraging Belarusians to break with Moscow, he might change his mind and dispatch Russian forces — as he did in Ukraine after the Maidan revolution in 2014.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron are therefore right to open a dialogue with Putin aimed at defusing the crisis. They should acknowledge Russia’s interest in maintaining strong ties with any future government in Belarus, most of whose population of 9.5 million speaks Russian. They should also make it clear they will hold Putin to account if the Kremlin attempts to suppress the Belarusian people’s right to demonstrate. When it meets today, the European Council should apply sanctions against members of Lukashenko’s regime found to be involved in abuses against protesters. The U.S. should do the same — and, if the administration dawdles, Congress should act on its own.
Pro-democracy campaigners might once have looked to the U.S. to take the lead. Donald Trump’s focus on re-election, and his affinity for strongmen, makes this unlikely. This makes it all the more necessary that Europe take the initiative, forge a common strategy to support the Belarusian people, and broker an arrangement with Russia that paves the way for a post-Lukashenko future.
European leaders should work with Russia to establish a timetable for Lukashenko to relinquish power and hold new elections under international supervision. Opposition candidates, such as Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who fled to Lithuania after the Aug. 9 vote, need to be guaranteed protection and allowed to return to campaign. To peel members of the Belarusian regime away from Lukashenko, the EU could announce plans to give financial help to the new government. In the meantime, it ought to adopt Poland’s proposal to boost grants to Belarus’s civil-society organizations and independent media.
The uprising in Belarus is a test of the EU’s ability to take effective action. At stake is its vital interest in stability on its border — and the hopes of Belarusians to live in a real democracy.