In This Article:
Long term investing works well, but it doesn't always work for each individual stock. We really hate to see fellow investors lose their hard-earned money. Anyone who held Illumina, Inc. (NASDAQ:ILMN) for five years would be nursing their metaphorical wounds since the share price dropped 75% in that time. And we doubt long term believers are the only worried holders, since the stock price has declined 37% over the last twelve months. Furthermore, it's down 41% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.
On a more encouraging note the company has added US$435m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.
We check all companies for important risks. See what we found for Illumina in our free report.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Illumina has made a profit in the past. On the other hand, it reported a trailing twelve months loss, suggesting it isn't reliably profitable. Other metrics may better explain the share price move.
We note that the dividend has remained healthy, so that wouldn't really explain the share price drop. While it's not completely obvious why the share price is down, a closer look at the company's history might help explain it.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Illumina is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.
A Different Perspective
Illumina shareholders are down 36% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 11%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 12% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. Importantly, we haven't analysed Illumina's dividend history. This free visual report on its dividends is a must-read if you're thinking of buying.