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Inflation, Retail Sales Reports Come As Investors Watch Data Amid Tariff Developments

The weekend meetings on trade between U.S. and Chinese officials are likely to capture market watchers’ attention to start the week, with investors hopeful that trade tensions between the two nations could be easing.

Inflation will be in focus as investors get their first look at April prices with the Tuesday release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). At last week’s Federal Reserve meeting, officials said they were looking for more improvement on inflation before moving to lower interest rates from their current levels.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Thursday; last week, President Trump was critical of the Fed for failing to act on interest rates. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly are among the other officials expected to deliver remarks this week.

March’s CPI report indicated that inflation dropped unexpectedly to a rise of 2.4%, while other recent indicators have shown that price increases are slowing. Investors are also expecting updates on import and export prices, as well as April’s Producer Price Index, which shows inflation at the wholesale level.

Retail sales data, scheduled for Thursday, comes as consumer spending has been strong while shoppers rush to buy items before tariffs take hold. Economists are looking for signs of change in spending levels, with recent consumer sentiment surveys showing that feelings about the economy are worsening.

On Friday, the latest sentiment report is expected to offer May's first look at how consumers feel about current and future economic conditions. The survey offers insights into spending patterns that can help support the economy. It follows several months of surveys showing declining consumer sentiment amid worries over the administration's tariffs' impact on prices. Tuesday’s expected small business sentiment report could further signal the economy’s direction.

The homebuilders' confidence survey, scheduled for Thursday, and Friday’s expected housing starts data, will highlight inventory supply trends during a period in which housing scarcity is helping drive affordability problems.

Investors will also be looking at Thursday’s scheduled industrial productivity report for data on the manufacturing sector. Monday’s planned release of the monthly federal budget for April will provide an update on government debt levels.

Walmart Earnings Come as Investors Watch for Consumer Spending Trends

Walmart’s scheduled quarterly report on Thursday leads the weekly earnings calendar, as market watchers seek information on consumer spending and economic conditions amid uncertain U.S. trade policy.

The retail giant reported prior-quarter earnings per share and revenue that came in ahead of analyst expectations, but its outlook was weaker than expected as the company said it was evaluating the impact of tariffs on its business.

Cisco is expected to report on Wednesday after the network infrastructure provider posted higher revenue in the prior quarter on increased AI orders and approved a $15 billion increase to the company’s stock repurchase program. Semiconductor maker Applied Materials’ report scheduled for Thursday comes after it said in its previous quarterly earnings report in February that sales could be negatively affected by recent limitations on chip exports.

Take-Two Interactive’s Thursday earnings report will drop as the video game maker builds excitement for its latest release in the Grand Theft Auto game franchise. Deere’s report on the same day will provide a look at the agricultural sector.

Nuclear power startup Oklo’s report on Tuesday comes after it recently reported that its losses widened in 2024. Investors in the power provider include OpenAI’s Sam Altman, which has raised investor optimism that the company’s services could be used to meet energy demand for AI infrastructure projects.

Investors will also be following scheduled earnings reports from Chinese e-commerce companies Alibaba, JD.com, and Tencent Music Entertainment.

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