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We think all investors should try to buy and hold high quality multi-year winners. While the best companies are hard to find, but they can generate massive returns over long periods. For example, the Lynas Rare Earths Limited (ASX:LYC) share price is up a whopping 383% in the last half decade, a handsome return for long term holders. This just goes to show the value creation that some businesses can achieve. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 27% gain in the last three months.
While this past week has detracted from the company's five-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.
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To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During five years of share price growth, Lynas Rare Earths actually saw its EPS drop 12% per year.
Essentially, it doesn't seem likely that investors are focused on EPS. Because earnings per share don't seem to match up with the share price, we'll take a look at other metrics instead.
On the other hand, Lynas Rare Earths' revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 10.0% over the last five years. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
Lynas Rare Earths is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. If you are thinking of buying or selling Lynas Rare Earths stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst consensus estimates for future profits.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there's a difference between Lynas Rare Earths' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. We note that Lynas Rare Earths' TSR, at 390% is higher than its share price return of 383%. When you consider it hasn't been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising.