INSIGHT-Back to the paddy fields. COVID smashes Indian middle-class dreams

By Saurabh Sharma and Devjyot Ghoshal

DUTTA NAGAR, India, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Until late March, Ashish Kumar was helping to make plastic boxes for Ferrero Rocher praline chocolates and the plastic spoons tucked inside Kinder Joy eggs to scoop out the milky sweet cream inside.

With a diploma in plastic mould technology, the 20-year-old had a foot on his chosen career ladder. His younger brother Aditya chose law, but Ashish had his sights set on plastic.

"I want to start a business of my own," he said, explaining how he wants to recycle plastic to make day-to-day products at his own factory.

India's coronavirus lockdown has thrown those plans into disarray. Educated but unemployed, Ashish Kumar is one of countless people across the globe whose social progress has been halted by the new coronavirus that has infected more than two million people in India alone, and thrown the economy into reverse. With it, the aspirations of millions are fading.

For years, people in rural India have been gaining prosperity and moving into what economists call a burgeoning middle class of consumers – those who earn more than $10 a day, by some definitions. This group has been a keystone of plans for economic development in the world's second most populous country. In the COVID-19 pandemic, India's economy is forecast to shrink by 4.5% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. At least 400 million Indian workers are at risk of falling deeper into poverty, according to the International Labour Organization (ILO).

Kumar is one of around 131,000 people who local officials estimate returned from working around India to Gonda, the district in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh that he left last June. Nationwide, about 10 million people made long, hard journeys back to rural villages they'd left. Some have gone back to the cities, but many of those who had been sending back funds are still stuck in the countryside.

Working in a factory in Baramati in the western state of Maharashtra, Kumar was earning 13,000 rupees ($173) every month, more than twice his father's pay from a job in a grain market near Kumar's home village in Uttar Pradesh, a sprawling agrarian state. Of that, the young man was sending home around 9,000 rupees every month, much of which was helping to fund his younger brother's studies.

No longer. Once a provider for his family, now he has become a financial burden.

Kumar whiles away his time back home in the village of Dutta Nagar, bantering with friends in the muddy courtyard – they jokingly call it their "office" – outside the ramshackle primary school where he studied. In Uttar Pradesh, around 60 million of the state's population of more than 200 million lives in poverty, according to the World Bank.