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While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (TSE:MFI) share price has gained 23% in the last three months. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. In fact, the share price is down 15% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.
So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Maple Leaf Foods became profitable within the last five years. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. So given the share price is down it's worth checking some other metrics too.
With revenue flat over three years, it seems unlikely that the share price is reflecting the top line. There doesn't seem to be any clear correlation between the fundamental business metrics and the share price. That could mean that the stock was previously overrated, or it could spell opportunity now.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Maple Leaf Foods' TSR for the last 3 years was -5.6%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Maple Leaf Foods shareholders are up 13% for the year (even including dividends). But that was short of the market average. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 4% per year over five year. This suggests the company might be improving over time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Maple Leaf Foods (2 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.