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Saga plc (LON:SAGA) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 28% in the last month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been stomach churning. Like a ship taking on water, the share price has sunk 78% in that time. So we don't gain too much confidence from the recent recovery. The million dollar question is whether the company can justify a long term recovery.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
View our latest analysis for Saga
Saga isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
In the last five years Saga saw its revenue shrink by 6.4% per year. While far from catastrophic that is not good. The share price fall of 12% (per year, over five years) is a stern reminder that money-losing companies are expected to grow revenue. We're generally averse to companies with declining revenues, but we're not alone in that. Fear of becoming a 'bagholder' may be keeping people away from this stock.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We've already covered Saga's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Its history of dividend payouts mean that Saga's TSR, which was a 75% drop over the last 5 years, was not as bad as the share price return.
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Saga shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 18% over the last year. That certainly beats the loss of about 12% per year over the last half decade. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Saga you should know about.