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Blackstone Inc. (NYSE:BX) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's forecasts. Consensus estimates suggest investors could expect greatly increased statutory revenues and earnings per share, with analysts modelling a real improvement in business performance.
Following the upgrade, the consensus from ten analysts covering Blackstone is for revenues of US$14b in 2022, implying a painful 37% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 39% to US$6.28. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$12b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.16 in 2022. There has definitely been an improvement in perception recently, with the analysts substantially increasing both their earnings and revenue estimates.
See our latest analysis for Blackstone
Despite these upgrades, the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$146, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Blackstone at US$182 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$117. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Blackstone shareholders.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Blackstone's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 46% by the end of 2022. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 28% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.2% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Blackstone is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us from these new estimates is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, with improved earnings power expected for this year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow slower than the wider market. Some investors might be disappointed to see that the price target is unchanged, but we feel that improving fundamentals are usually a positive - assuming these forecasts are met! So Blackstone could be a good candidate for more research.