It's been a wild ride for markets since President Trump announced widespread tariffs on April 2. Trump's so-called “Liberation Day” announcement included higher tariff rates than hoped, leading to investors reworking their expectations for the U.S. economy.
Powered by Money.com - Yahoo may earn commission from the links above.
There's evidence that a potential U.S. economic slowdown may already be underway, and despite ongoing tariff negotiations, risks remain that tariffs may push the economy into stagflation or outright recession. That risk continues to cast a shadow over risk assets, including stocks and cryptocurrency, which tend to perform best when wallets are fat and consumers and businesses are increasing spending, rather than ratcheting back.
The stock market sell-off was big, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite falling 19% and 24% from early-year highs, respectively. Bitcoin fell alongside stocks, losing 27% from its January high through April 8.
The drop in risk assets was unsettling, but created opportunity for risk-tolerant investors to ‘buy the dip.’ Since President Trump paused most of the reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2 on April 9, the Nasdaq and bitcoin have surged higher by 28% and 39% respectively.
The gains have been impressive, but not everyone is convinced it will be clear sailing from here.
Veteran Wall Street bond manager Bill Gross has navigated good and bad markets since 1971. He co-founded Pacific Investment Management Co., or PIMCO, a huge firm with $2 trillion under management. He formerly managed over $270 billion via PIMCO’s Total Return Fund, earning him the “Bond King” nickname before moving to Janus Henderson Investors from 2014 to 2019.
Gross offered a blunt message about bitcoin this week, and given his track record, his opinion is worth considering.
Bill Gross, the "bond king" offered up a candid take on bitcoin after its dramatic rally since early April.Image source: Bloomberg/Getty Images
Stocks, bitcoin look past an economy at risk
There's been considerable debate about what will happen to the economy next. Many think tariffs will tax cash-strapped consumers later this year, lowering economic growth, even as businesses press pause on projects awaiting trade deal clarity. Others believe the risks of tariffs derailing activity are overblown and temporary.
The jobs market arguably remains healthy, given that the unemployment rate is relatively low at 4.2%. However, unemployment is up from 3.4% in 2023, and companies announced 93,816 job cuts in May, up 47% year over year, according to Challenger, Grey, & Christmas.
The uptick in joblessness prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 1% last year; however, the Fed has paused on additional cuts over fear that reducing rates could swell inflation, given that tariffs are only beginning to be felt on prices.
The Fed's hesitancy to cut interest rates has drawn sharp criticism from the White House, ostensibly because it recognizes tariffs may slow GDP, worsening unemployment.
If the economy were to drop off, and the Fed remained unwilling to budge on interest rates, Congress may be unable to adjust fiscal policy fast enough to bridge the gap, given our deficit and mountain of debt.
The U.S. deficit is over $1.8 trillion, representing roughly 6.4% of gross domestic product. Meanwhile, total public debt outstanding is approximately 122% of GDP, far higher than its 75% level in 2008 during the Great Recession.
The economic uncertainty has led to bitcoin and gold finding willing buyers as market participants look to diversify risk.
Bill Gross throws cold water on bitcoin bulls
Bill Gross's 50 years of Wall Street experience mean he's seen many market pops and drops, including the Nifty 50, skyrocketing inflation in the 1970s, the S&L crisis in the late 80s and early 90s, the Internet boom and bust, the Great Recession, Covid, and the 2002 bear market.
In short, Gross has been around the block, making his take on bitcoin worth paying attention to.
Gross believes bitcoin is valuable because individuals and others widely hold it, and its supply is capped.
"There are now approximately 19.4 million Bitcoins priced at about 107,000 each. The supply of total coins is capped at 21 million over the next few years of “mining," wrote Gross recently on X. "While hard to estimate, approximately 90-95% are held by individuals, institutions, and exchanges...for the moment there is “value“ to a Bitcoin."
However, Gross appears to think that bitcoin's value may be reflected in its price after its recent rally.
"It is in the “meme stock“ world for the most part — more valuable than a Trump coin but subject to excessive volatility with underlying value hard to measure," wrote Gross.
"There are better risk/reward opportunities," added Gross bluntly.
"Any asset category using high leverage is a future risk not only to the asset itself but to the financial system as a whole."
