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The smartphone ecosystem has avoided the biggest brunt of President Trump's tariffs, for now.

But if that for now ends, major phone carriers appear poised to dump the higher costs of smartphones onto the laps of consumers.

Trump earlier this month exempted smartphones and some other electronics from his reciprocal tariffs, though he left a 20% fentanyl tariff on China intact. The exemption could prove temporary, keeping the prospect of 145% tariffs on China (where Apple (AAPL) makes its iPhones in play.

Even the 20% fentanyl tariff on China may sting consumers soon if no trade deal between the two superpowers is reached.

The price of an iPhone 15 would increase to $839 from $699 currently, according to an analysis from tech publication CNET. The iPhone 16 would climb to $959 from $799.

Here is what the major phone carriers said this week as they reported earnings about the potential for tariff-driven price increases on consumers.

Marks & Spencer shares dropped today after it announced it is pausing taking online orders in the UK and Ireland due to a recent cyber attack.

M&S announced today:

US consumer confidence slumped at its fastest rate since the 1990s recession, new data has shown.

This was according to a closely-watched poll of consumer morale, from the University of Michigan.

Economic expectations has fallen 32% since January, which is the biggest three-month drop since the economic downturn 35 years ago.

The survey also found that consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month in April, plunging 8% from March, driven by a tumble in expectations.

The final April sentiment index fell to 52.2 from 57 a month earlier, according to the University of Michigan. That’s the fourth-lowest reading in data back to the late 1970s, Bloomberg reports.

Sentiment is 32% lower than a year ago, the survey show.

Surveys of Consumers director Joanne Hsu said:

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade hit its highest since February 5 at $10.67-1/2 per bushel.

Reuters said:

US soybeans have not been mentioned so far in Chinese tariff exemptions and China is currently in a period where it mainly buys freshly-harvested Brazilian soybeans.

However, moves to defuse trade tensions are seen as positive for U.S. exports beyond this season.

Sentiment in the US. soybean market has also been boosted by brisk demand from Europe and a report that Japan is considering an increase in soybean imports from the United States as part of tariff negotiations.

Just before US markets open, let's take a quick look at what stocks to watch next week.

Earnings season is now in full swing, with a number of key companies due to report in the coming week, including four of the Magnificent 7 tech giants in focus.

Uncertainty over US president Donald Trump's tariff plans continues to loom large over markets, with investors eager to find out more detail from companies as to how a US-China trade war could impact their businesses.

Investors will be keeping an eye out for an commentary on potential disruption from tariffs from Mag 7 companies Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META) and Amazon (AMZN) when they report in the coming week.

Fears of a tariff-induced recession and the effect this could have on fuel demand have weighed on oil prices, adding to pressure on the likes of Shell (SHEL.L), which is set to report on Friday 2 May.

Major UK-listed banks are also set to be in the spotlight on the London market, with HSBC (HSBA.L), Lloyds (LLOY.L), Barclays (BARC.L) and NatWest (NWG.L) all slated to report in the coming week.

Read the full article here

According to the Office for National Statistics, the UK exported £59.3bn of goods to the US market last year.

The Guardian has the details:

Accounting for 16.2% of all of the UK’s goods exports worldwide, the ONS said the US had been growing in importance for British companies as a market to sell cars, pharmaceuticals and other manufactured goods.

This is because the proportion of total goods exported to the US has been steadily rising in recent years, up from 13.8% of global exports in 2022. The ONS says this is “indicating that the US may be becoming a relatively more important export partner for the UK.”

Machinery and transport equipment is the main export to the US, with shipments worth £29.1bn in 2024 — a £1.8bn (6.7%) increase on the previous year. This was followed by chemicals, worth £10.8bn — accounting for almost a fifth of the UK’s global chemicals exports.

Cars - subject to 25% US tariffs — were the biggest single category of export, worth £9bn — accounting for 27.4% of all global car exports. This made the US the UK’s number one export partner for cars, with sales worth more than double the second-largest market, China.

Exports of iron and steel — also subject to 25% US tariffs were worth a relatively limited £400m, accounting for 8.4% of total global exports.

The UK’s trade in services with the US was worth significantly more than the value of goods. In 2024, the UK imported £61.2bn of services and sold £137bn of services exports to the US — led by areas including research and development, professional and management consulting.

The UK will be expected to pay a fee to guarantee British companies access to a €150bn EU weapons fund to buy weapons, under plans being discussed by diplomats in Brussels.

An EU diplomat told the Financial Times: “The pact is a nonbinding instrument. The more difficult hurdle is going to be a bilateral agreement that would include a financial contribution."

Read more here

Apple (AAPL) is reportedly looking to pivot away from China, moving he assembly of all US-sold iPhones to India by as soon as the end of 2026.

The FT said on Friday that Apple has in recent years been steadily building capacity in India with contract manufacturers Tata Electronics and Foxconn. However, it still assembles most of its smartphones in China.

The firm plans to source the roughly 60 million iPhones it sells in the US each year exclusively from India by the end of 2026, doubling its production there.

It comes as India faces the prospect of 26% “reciprocal” tariffs, although these have currently been frozen. JD Vance, the Vice President, has spoken of “very good progress” on trade talks between the US and India in the last week.

UK households are always looking for ways to make their money go further amid the cost of living crisis, and savings accounts can help.

After years of low rates, high-yield savings accounts are still having a moment even after the Bank of England (BoE) held interest rates at 4.5% in March. While homeowners face lofty mortgage rates, there is a silver lining in higher borrowing costs, and consumers can find UK savings accounts offering rates above inflation.

Markets on Wednesday priced in a 100% probability that the BoE will lower rates by 25 basis points, amid mounting concerns that a breakdown in global trade could weigh heavily on the UK’s already sluggish growth prospects.

Myron Jobson, senior personal finance analyst at Interactive Investor, said: “The market is now predicting that interest rates will fall more quickly than previously anticipated as policymakers move to shield the stuttering UK economy from a potential downturn — a risk exacerbated by Trump’s tariff wars.

“While lower borrowing costs might come as a relief to mortgage holders, they could spell bad news for savers, who have only just started to see decent returns on their cash after years in the doldrums.”

Experts urge savers to shop around for the best deals and review their accounts regularly, as many may still be sitting on products that fail to beat inflation.

Ian Futcher, a financial planner at Quilter, urged savers to look around for the best deals. He said: "Lower interest rates, while beneficial to borrowers, tend to erode savings rates, particularly in easy-access accounts. Tariff-driven inflation could further weaken the real returns savers receive.

"With that in mind, savers should be proactive — locking into fixed-term deals where higher rates still exist or considering a diversified investment strategy tailored to their time horizon and risk appetite."

Read the full article here

Some 9,205 individuals entered insolvency in England and Wales last month — 7% lower than in February but 2% higher than in March last year, according to official data published on Friday.

The individual insolvencies consisted of 613 bankruptcies, 3,490 debt relief orders (DROs) and 5,102 individual voluntary arrangements (IVAs).

The number of DROs in March 2025 was 4% lower than in February 2025. DROs, the Insolvency Service reports, have been at record-high monthly numbers since the abolition of the upfront £90 fee in April 2024, with the 45,804 DROs in the past 12 months being nearly twice as high as the long-term annual average.

The number of IVAs registered in March 2025 was 9% lower than the average monthly number seen in 2024. Bankruptcy numbers remained at about half of pre-2020 levels and were also 11% lower than in March 2024.

In the 12 months ending 31 March 2025, one in 415 adults in England and Wales entered insolvency (at a rate of 24.1 per 10,000 adults). This is higher than the rate of 21.3 per 10,000 adults (one in 469) who entered insolvency in the 12 months ending 31 March 2024.

Ranald Mitchell, director at Charwin Mortgages commented:

California's economy has surpassed Japan, making it the fourth largest global economic force, according to new data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The data revealed that California's gross domestic product (GDP) hit $4.10 trillion (£3.08 trillion) in 2024, surpassing Japan, which was marked at $4.01 trillion.

The US state now only trails Germany, China and the US as a whole.

"California isn't just keeping pace with the world - we're setting the pace," California governor Gavin Newsom said.

California has the largest share of manufacturing and agricultural production in America. It is also home to leading technological innovation, the centre of the world's entertainment industry and the country's two largest seaports.

Retail sales rose again for the third consecutive month in March with volumes up 0.4% following a rise of 0.7% in February.

Warmer weather boosted sales for fashion chains and garden centres, according to new data from the Office for National Statistics.

Most analysts had been expecting sales to decline by 0.4% last month.

Between January and March, the volume of sales rose by 1.6% compared with the previous quarter, which was the fastest pace since the spring of 2021, the ONS said.

Sales at non-food stores rose by 1.7% over the month, but this was partly offset by food store sales volumes falling 1.3%.

Hannah Finselbach, ONS senior statistician, said:

A dozen US states have filed a lawsuit to stop President Trump's tariffs, arguing that they are unlawful because they bypassed Congress.

The states challenging Trump's tariffs include Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Minnesota, Maine, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, and Vermont.

Bloomberg has the details:

Google’s parent, Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), delivered a decent revenue and earnings beat last night, mostly driven by its search advertising business.

It also announced a 5% dividend increase, with shares rising by close to 5% in post-market trading, following on a 2.37% gain in the regular session.

Here’s a snapshot of the company's results , compared with estimates from analysts polled by LSEG:

• Revenue: $90.23 billion vs. $89.12 billion expected

• Earnings per share: $2.81 vs. $2.01 expected

Wall Street is also watching several other numbers in the report:

• YouTube advertising revenue: $8.93 billion vs. $8.97 billion, according to StreetAccount

• Google Cloud revenue: $12.26 billion vs. $12.27 billion, according to StreetAccount

• Traffic acquisition costs (TAC): $13.75 billion vs. $13.66 billion, according to StreetAccount

The next stop for the Mag-7 will be the releases from Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) on Wednesday and Thursday next week.

Oil (BZ=F, CL=F) prices made modest gains on Friday but remained on course for a weekly decline, as expectations of increased supply from OPEC+ producers and continued uncertainty over US-China trade relations weighed on market sentiment.

Brent crude futures were up 0.4% to $65.91 a barrel on Friday morning, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.1% to $62.87 a barrel. Both contracts, however, remain down roughly 2% for the week, pressured by persistent concerns over oversupply.

According to a Reuters report, several OPEC+ members are pushing to accelerate output increases in June, extending May’s unexpected production boost of 411,000 barrels per day. The proposed hike has deepened internal divisions within the group over quota compliance and comes at a time when oil prices are hovering near four-year lows.

Analysts warn that a further increase in supply could place additional downward pressure on prices, particularly given the fragile demand outlook amid global economic headwinds and the ongoing US-China trade dispute.

The push to accelerate output hikes could negatively affect oil prices by increasing supply at a time when demand is weak and market oversupply concerns are already high.

"For today, oil prices are slightly up as the market responds to signs of easing tensions around Trump's tariffs and a potential shift in the Fed's policy stance, contributing to a broader market recovery," said LSEG senior analyst Anh Pham.

"On a weekly basis, however, prices are down as concerns over oversupply from OPEC+ persist, while the demand outlook remains uncertain amid ongoing trade tensions. A stronger U.S. dollar has also added pressure to crude prices," he added.

Rachel Reeves has said that the UK's trading relationship with the EU is more important than its alignment with the US, adding that she understood why Donald Trump is trying to address “global imbalances” in trade.

It comes as the chancellor is set to meet the US treasury secretary today as she attempts to make progress on a trade deal after a series of talks with other finance ministers at the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) spring meetings this week.

She told the BBC:

According to reports, China is considering some exemptions to its 125% tariffs on US goods, with the world's second largest economy asking companies to submit their own requests for items to be spared duties.

Reuters reported that a Ministry of Commerce taskforce was collecting lists of items that could have duties removed — a sign that policymakers are worried about the damage caused by its trade war with Washington.

American Chamber of Commerce in China president Michael Hart said: “The Chinese government, for example, has been asking our companies what sort of things are you importing to China from the US that you cannot find anywhere else and so would shut down your supply chain.”

A list of 131 categories of products eligible for exemptions has been circulating widely on social media and among businesses and trade groups on Friday.

News will not only cheer investors but could also reassure politicians and central bankers around the world, who have spoken out about the consequences of a slowdown in world trade.

Stocks in Asia mostly rose last night, seeing a second consecutive week of gains as traders mull signs that the US and China are prepared to pull back from their trade war.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng (^HSI) rose 0.5% but there was a small slip for mainland China’s Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) which was down just 0.07% on the day.

In Japan, the Nikkei (^N225) was up 1.9%, regaining all its losses since Trump’s announcement of the highest US tariffs in a century.

It came as reports revealed that China is considering some exemptions to its 125% tariffs on US goods.

Across the pond on Wall Street, major stock indexes rose yesterday, with the Dow Jones (^DJI) up 1.2% to 40,093.40, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) climbing 2% to 5,484.77 and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rising 2.7% to 17,166.04.

Tech stocks pushed higher after Google parent Alphabet (GOOGLGOOG) also beat profit expectations and reaffirmed AI spending targets. Its shares were up nearly 5% in after-hours trading in New York.

The dollar, which has taken a beating through a volatile few weeks of tariff announcements found a footing around $1.328 to the pound and $1.133 per euro.

In the bond market, the yield on 10-year US Treasury notes fell to 4.325% from 4.362% late on Wednesday.

Good morning folks! Welcome back to our markets live blog. It's the last one of the week and as usual we will be taking a deep dive into what's moving markets and happening across the global economy.

Here's a quick look at what's on the agenda for today:

• 7am: Trading updates: Evoke (EVOK.L)

• 7am: UK retail sales report for March

• 9.30am: UK trade data for Q4 2024

• 3pm: University of Michigan’s survey of US consumer confidence

• 3pm: IMF holds press conference on the economic outlook for Europe