A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of AVIC Joy Holdings (HK) Limited (HKG:260)
Simply Wall St
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of AVIC Joy Holdings (HK) Limited (HKG:260) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. I will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
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We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
Levered FCF (HK$, Millions)
HK$15.49
HK$20.64
HK$25.56
HK$29.98
HK$33.80
HK$37.01
HK$39.69
HK$41.94
HK$43.86
HK$45.53
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Est @ 46.61%
Est @ 33.23%
Est @ 23.86%
Est @ 17.3%
Est @ 12.71%
Est @ 9.5%
Est @ 7.25%
Est @ 5.68%
Est @ 4.57%
Est @ 3.8%
Present Value (HK$, Millions) Discounted @ 15.3%
HK$13.43
HK$15.52
HK$16.68
HK$16.96
HK$16.58
HK$15.75
HK$14.65
HK$13.43
HK$12.18
HK$10.96
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= HK$146.14m
"Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 10-year government bond rate (2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 15.3%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = HK$HK$349m ÷ ( 1 + 15.3%)10 = HK$84.08m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is HK$230.22m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate of HK$0.039. Relative to the current share price of HK$0.046, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
SEHK:260 Intrinsic value, May 17th 2019
The assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at AVIC Joy Holdings (HK) as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 15.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 2. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For AVIC Joy Holdings (HK), There are three pertinent factors you should further research:
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of 260? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every HK stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.
