Rating Action: Moody's assigns provisional ratings to seven CMBS classes of Merit 2020-HILL
Global Credit Research - 11 Aug 2020
$307.5 million of structured securities affected
New York, August 11, 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service has assigned provisional ratings to seven classes of CMBS securities, issued by Merit 2020-HILL, Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2020-HILL:
Cl. A, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf) Cl. B, Assigned (P)Aa3 (sf) Cl. C, Assigned (P)A3 (sf) Cl. D, Assigned (P)Baa3 (sf) Cl. E, Assigned (P)Ba3 (sf) Cl. F, Assigned (P)B3 (sf)
Cl. X-CP*, Assigned (P)A2 (sf)
* Reflects interest-only classes
RATINGS RATIONALE
The certificates are collateralized by a single floating-rate, mortgage loan secured by the fee simple interests in 78 self-storage properties located across 23 states. Our ratings are based on the credit quality of the loan and the strength of the securitization structure. The mortgage loan is secured by the fee simple interests in 78 self-storage properties. In aggregate, there are 37,467 units that contain 4,600,773 SF of net rentable area. The largest property represents 5.5% of the mortgage allocated loan amount ("ALA"). The portfolio is geographically diverse as the 78 properties are located across 42 MSA's in 23 states. The largest state concentration is California, which represents 19.7% of the mortgage ALA. The portfolio's property-level Herfindahl score is 58.6, based on mortgage ALA. The portfolio reported a weighted average physical occupancy rate of 90.7% by net rentable area for the trailing twelve-month period ending on May 31, 2020. Moody's approach to rating this transaction involved the application of our Large Loan and Single Asset/Single Borrower CMBS and Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest Only (IO) Securities. The rating approach for securities backed by a single loan compares the credit risk inherent in the underlying collateral with the credit protection offered by the structure. The structure's credit enhancement is quantified by the maximum deterioration in property value that the securities are able to withstand under various stress scenarios without causing an increase in the expected loss for various rating levels. In assigning single borrower ratings, we also consider a range of qualitative issues as well as the transaction's structural and legal aspects. The credit risk of commercial real estate loans is determined primarily by two factors: 1) the probability of default, which is largely driven by the DSCR, and 2) and the severity of loss in the event of default, which is largely driven by the LTV of the underlying loan. The first mortgage balance of $323,850,000 represents a Moody's LTV of 114.3%. The Moody's First Mortgage Actual DSCR is 2.70X and Moody's First Mortgage Actual Stressed DSCR is 0.88X. The financing is subject to an additional mezzanine loan totaling $57,150,000. The Moody's Total Debt LTV (inclusive of the mezzanine loan) is 134.5% while the Moody's Total Debt Actual DSCR is 2.01X and Moody's Total Debt Stressed DSCR is 0.75X. Moody's also grades properties on a scale of 0 to 5 (best to worst) and considers those grades when assessing the likelihood of debt payment. The factors considered include property age, quality of construction, location, market, and tenancy. The Property's quality grade is 2.31.
Notable strengths of the transaction include: portfolio's historical operating performance, geographic diversity, and experienced property management.
Notable credit challenges of the transaction include: the average age of the collateral improvements, the loan's floating-rate and interest-only mortgage loan profile, and certain credit negative legal features.
The principal methodology used in rating all classes except interest-only classes was "Moody's Approach to Rating Large Loan and Single Asset/Single Borrower CMBS" published in May 2020 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBS_1227875. The methodologies used in rating interest-only classes were "Moody's Approach to Rating Large Loan and Single Asset/Single Borrower CMBS" published in May 2020 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBS_1227875 and "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only (IO) Securities" published in February 2019 and available at https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Approach-to-Rating-Structured-Finance-Interest-Only-IO-Securities--PBS_1111179. Please see the list of ratings at the top of this announcement to identify which classes are interest-only (indicated by the *). Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies. Moody's approach for single borrower and large loan multi-borrower transactions evaluates credit enhancement levels based on an aggregation of adjusted loan level proceeds derived from our Moody's loan level LTV ratios. Major adjustments to determining proceeds include leverage, loan structure, and property type. These aggregated proceeds are then further adjusted for any pooling benefits associated with loan level diversity, other concentrations and correlations. Moody's analysis considers the following inputs to calculate the proposed IO rating based on the published methodology: original and current bond ratings and credit estimates; original and current bond balances grossed up for losses for all bonds the IO(s) reference(s) within the transaction; and IO type corresponding to an IO type as defined in the published methodology.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. Performance that falls outside the given range may indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had previously anticipated. Factors that may cause an upgrade of the ratings include significant loan pay downs or amortization, an increase in the pool's share of defeasance or overall improved pool performance. Factors that may cause a downgrade of the ratings include a decline in the overall performance of the pool, loan concentration, increased expected losses from specially serviced and troubled loans or interest shortfalls. The rapid spread of the coronavirus outbreak, the government measures put in place to contain it and the deteriorating global economic outlook, have created a severe and extensive credit shock across sectors, regions and markets. Our analysis has considered the effect on the performance of commercial real estate from the collapse in U.S. economic activity in the second quarter and a gradual recovery in the second half of the year. However, that outcome depends on whether governments can reopen their economies while also safeguarding public health and avoiding a further surge in infections. As a result, the degree of uncertainty around our forecasts is unusually high. We regard the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under our ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health and safety.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004. Further information on the representations and warranties and enforcement mechanisms available to investors are available on http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBS_1240205. The analysis includes an assessment of collateral characteristics and performance to determine the expected collateral loss or a range of expected collateral losses or cash flows to the rated instruments. As a second step, Moody's estimates expected collateral losses or cash flows using a quantitative tool that takes into account credit enhancement, loss allocation and other structural features, to derive the expected loss for each rated instrument. Moody's quantitative analysis entails an evaluation of scenarios that stress factors contributing to sensitivity of ratings and take into account the likelihood of severe collateral losses or impaired cash flows. Moody's weights the impact on the rated instruments based on its assumptions of the likelihood of the events in such scenarios occurring. For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com. For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.
These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website www.moodys.com.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.
Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1133569.
At least one ESG consideration was material to the credit rating action(s) announced and described above.
The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Stephen L Renna Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody's Investors Service, Inc. 250 Greenwich Street New York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376 Client Service: 1 212 553 1653 Blair Coulson VP - Senior Credit Officer Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376 Client Service: 1 212 553 1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc. 250 Greenwich Street New York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376 Client Service: 1 212 553 1653
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