NZD/USD Price forecast for the week of December 4, 2017, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar went back and forth during the week, going as low as the 0.6 a region, but then broke above the 0.69 level. More volatility for what is one of the most volatility driven currencies. · FX Empire

Christopher Lewis

Updated Fri, Dec 1, 2017, 10:31 PM

The New Zealand dollar initially tried to break down during the week, but found enough support near the 0.68 level to turn things around and rally a bit. We even broke above the 0.69 level, but it’s not until we break above the 0.70 level that I think that buying for longer-term traders will be tenable. Given enough time, I think we will break down below the 0.68 level, and a weekly close below that level should send this market down to the 0.6350 level. That is the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and it’s likely that we will eventually find that technical trade happens. However, if we were to break above the 0.70 level, the market should then go to the 0.75 level above, which has been massive resistance for the longer-term.

In general though, I believe that there are enough concerns around the world with risk appetite and geopolitical issues that the New Zealand dollar will probably remain on the back foot longer term. I think that at this point you have to look at short-term rallies as potential selling opportunities in a pair that has been absolutely pummeled. Liquidity is going to be a bit of an issue over the next couple of weeks, so keep that in mind, as the New Zealand dollar isn’t exactly the most liquid major currency pair anyway. Wait for a move below the 0.68 level, or a move above the 0.70 level for a longer-term trade, because between now and then it’s just going to be noisy.