S&P 500; US Indexes Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Tax Reform, Mueller Investigation in Focus this Week

The three major U.S. stock indexes finished strong last week after a mid-week sell-off as investors continued to digest the potential impact of tax reform, which could be approved by the Senate this week and signed into law by President Trump before the start of Christmas break.

In the cash market, the benchmark S&P 500 Index settled at 2,675.81, up 0.9%. The blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 24,651.74, up 1.3% and the tech-based NASDAQ Composite ended the week at 6,929.65, up 1.4%.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average
Weekly March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

In the futures market, the March E-mini S&P 500 Index settled at 2682.00, up 28.00 or +1.06%. The March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 24677, up 341 or +1.40% and the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 finished at 6498.50, up 140.00 or +2.20%.

Besides tax reform, investors focused on key economic data and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate and monetary policy decisions. Investors liked the Fed’s assessment of the economy and its gradual interest rate hikes. The central bank’s actions continued to make stocks, also known as higher-yielding assets, a most attractive investment.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index
Weekly March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Fed News

The Fed delivered a “dovish” outlook on inflation and the direction of interest rates. The U.S. central bank kept its interest rate projections steady rather than revising them higher.

The Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point to a range of 1.25-1.50 percent on Wednesday. The central bank projected three more rate hikes in both 2018 and 2019, unchanged from its September forecasts.

The central bank also hiked its GDP estimate from 2.1 percent in September to 2.5 percent. The Federal Open Market Committee also adjusted its inflation forecast for 2018 to 1.7 percent from 1.6 percent.

E-mini S&P 500 Index
Weekly March E-mini S&P 500 Index

Other U.S. Economic Data

In other news, U.S. producer price data showed an increase in wholesale inflation, increasing hopes that price pressures may be rising from sluggish levels. According to the Labor Department, the producer price index for final demand increased 0.4 percent last month. The number met economist expectations.

Core PPI was up 0.3%, beating the 0.2% forecast, but coming in lower than the previous month’s 0.4% read.

The Labor Department said on Wednesday its Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent last month after edging up 0.1 percent in October. That raised the year-on-year increase in the CPI back to 2.2 percent from 2.0 percent in October. The increase was in line with economists’ forecasts.

Core CPI advanced 0.2 percent in October. As a result, the annual increase in the core CPI slowed to 1.7 percent in November from 1.8 percent in October.