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Investors in PageGroup plc (LON:PAGE) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.9% to close at UK£3.31 following the release of its full-year results. It was not a great result overall. Although revenues beat expectations, hitting UK£1.7b, statutory earnings missed analyst forecasts by 14%, coming in at just UK£0.09 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on PageGroup after the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for PageGroup
Taking into account the latest results, the nine analysts covering PageGroup provided consensus estimates of UK£1.55b revenue in 2025, which would reflect an uncomfortable 11% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 5.2% to UK£0.086 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of UK£1.55b and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.10 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at UK£3.83, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values PageGroup at UK£4.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£3.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 11% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.7% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.4% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - PageGroup is expected to lag the wider industry.