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There's been a major selloff in Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:PHAT) shares in the week since it released its first-quarter report, with the stock down 33% to US$2.76. Revenues came in at US$29m, in line with expectations, while statutory losses per share were substantially higher than expected, at US$1.31 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Phathom Pharmaceuticals after the latest results.
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After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Phathom Pharmaceuticals are now predicting revenues of US$158.9m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 94% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 31% to US$3.51. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$163.4m and losses of US$4.14 per share in 2025. While the revenue estimates fell, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts making a notable improvement in losses per share in particular.
Check out our latest analysis for Phathom Pharmaceuticals
The consensus price target fell 11% to US$18.63, with the dip in revenue estimates clearly souring sentiment, despite the forecast reduction in losses. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Phathom Pharmaceuticals analyst has a price target of US$28.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$5.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Phathom Pharmaceuticals' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Phathom Pharmaceuticals' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 142% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 100% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Phathom Pharmaceuticals is expected to grow much faster than its industry.