Q1 2025 AGNC Investment Corp Earnings Call

In This Article:

Participants

Katie Turlington; Investor Relations; AGNC Investment Corp

Peter Federico; President, Chief Executive Officer, Director; AGNC Investment Corp

Bernice Bell; Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President; AGNC Investment Corp

Bose George; Analyst; Keefe, Bruyette & Woods North America

Crispin Love; Analyst; Piper Sandler Companies

Doug Harter; Analyst; UBS Equities

Trevor Cranston; Analyst; Citizens

Matthew Erdner; Analyst; Jones Trading

Jason Stewart; Analyst; Janney Montgomery Scott LLC

Eric Hagen; Analyst; BTIG

Rick Shane; Analyst; JPMorgan

Harsh Hemnani; Analyst; Green Street

Presentation

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the AGNC Investment Corp., first-quarter 2025 shareholder call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Katie Turlington in Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Katie Turlington

Thank you all for joining AGNC Investment Corp., first-quarter 2025 earnings call. Before we begin, I'd like to review the Safe Harbor statement. This conference call and corresponding slide presentation contains statements that, to the extent they are not recitations of historical fact, constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All such forward-looking statements are intended to be subject to the Safe Harbor protection provided by the Reform Act.
Actual outcomes and results could differ materially from those forecasts due to the impact of many factors beyond the control of AGNC. All forward-looking statements in this presentation are made only as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements are included in AGNC's periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Copies are available on the SEC's website at sec.gov. We disclaim any obligation to update our forward-looking statements unless required by law.
Participants on the call include Peter Federico, President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer; Bernie Bell, Exec President and Chief Financial Officer; and Sean Reid, Executive Vice President, Strategy and Corporate Development.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Peter Federico.

Peter Federico

Good morning and thank you all for joining our first quarter conference call. Government policy actions and their potentially adverse effects on economic growth and inflation caused investor sentiment to turn decidedly more cautious in the first quarter. This elevated macroeconomic and monetary policy uncertainty led investors to initially seek the safety of high-quality assets like US Treasuries, Agency mortgage-backed securities and cash over higher risk assets like equities and corporate debt.
Driven by our attractive monthly dividend, AGNC generated an economic return of 2.4% in the first quarter. AGNC's total stock return with dividends reinvested for the quarter was positive 7.8%. The tariff policy announcement at the beginning of April, however, caused volatility to increase significantly across all financial markets. With the breadth and magnitude of the tariffs being greater than anticipated, recession fears increased materially. Equity prices in turn fell further from their February peak and into bear market territory.
Interest rate volatility also increased substantially. Over the first nine trading days of April, the yield on the 10-year treasury moved initially sharply lower and then sharply higher. In total, over the short period of time, the yield on the 10-year treasury fluctuated by more than 100 basis points. This interest rate volatility and broad macroeconomic uncertainty caused normal financial market correlations to break down, liquidity to become constrained, and investor sentiment to turn negative.
The Agency MBS market was not immune to these adverse conditions and also came under significant pressure in early April. In spread terms, the current coupon spread to a blend of five- and 10-year treasury rates widened to 160 basis points, the top of the trading range over the last five quarters. The performance of Agency MBS relative to swaps was substantially worse given the unprecedented narrowing of swap spreads that occurred during the height of the market turmoil.
As a result, the current coupon spread to a blend of swap rates reached an intraday peak of 230 basis points. For comparison, the widest level reached during the height of the COVID pandemic was 235 basis points for this measure. As of yesterday, this spread was about 220 basis points still very elevated, but off the wides. AGNC was well prepared for the recent market volatility and navigated it without issue. While AGNC's net asset value was negatively impacted by the mortgage spread widening, the expected return on our portfolio is also now higher as it reflects these wider spread levels.
Moreover, at current valuation levels, we believe Agency MBS provide investors with a compelling return opportunity on both a levered and unlevered basis. Recent trading history is supportive of this value proposition as well as spreads historically have not remained at these levels for an extended period of time.
Agency MBS also offer investors an attractive fixed income alternative to corporate debt and other credit-sensitive instruments, especially in light of the deteriorating economic outlook. For these reasons, and despite the fact that the macroeconomic uncertainty is likely to remain elevated over the near term, our outlook for Agency MBS continues to be very favorable.
With that, I will now turn the call over to Bernie Bell to discuss our financial results in greater detail.