Q1 2025 Xcel Energy Inc Earnings Call

In This Article:

Participants

Roopesh Aggarwal; Vice President - Investor Relations; Xcel Energy Inc

Robert Frenzel; Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer; Xcel Energy Inc

Brian Van Abel; Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President; Xcel Energy Inc

Nicholas Campanella; Analyst; Barclays

Julien Dumoulin-Smith; Analyst; Jefferies

Carly Davenport; Analyst; Goldman Sachs

Durgesh Chopra; Analyst; Evercore ISI

Jeremy Tonet; Analyst; J.P. Morgan

David Arcaro; Analyst; Morgan Stanley

Anthony Crowdell; Analyst; Mizuho Securities

Ryan Levine; Analyst; Citi

Travis Miller; Analyst; Morningstar

Presentation

Operator

Hello and welcome to Xcel Energy first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Melissa, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note this conference is being recorded and for the duration of the call, your lines will be on listen-only. (Operator Instructions)
I'll now turn the call over to Roopesh Aggarwal, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Roopesh Aggarwal

Good morning and welcome to Xcel Energy's 2025 first quarter earnings call. Joining me today are Bob Frenzel, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Brian Van Abel, Executive Vice President, and Chief Financial Officer. In addition, we have other members of the management team in the room to answer your questions if needed.
This morning we will review our 2025 first quarter results and highlights. Provide updated 2025 assumptions and share recent business and regulatory updates. Slides that accompany today's call are available on our website.
Some comments during today's call may contain forward-looking information. Significant factors that could cause results to differ from those anticipated are described in our earnings release and SEC filings. Today we will discuss certain metrics that are non-GAAP measures. Information on the comparable GAAP measures and reconciliations are included in our earnings release. I will now turn the call over to Bob.

Robert Frenzel

Thanks, Roopesh. Good morning, everybody. Xcel Energy, we know that economic growth and prosperity of our communities and country depends on our ability to deliver energy to our customers when and where they need it. While keeping their bills as low as possible. This commitment to our communities and customers is demonstrated in our results this morning.
In the first quarter of 2025, Xcel Energy delivered earnings of $0.84 per share. Invested $2.3 billion in resilient and reliable energy infrastructure for our customers. And accelerated our wildfire risk reduction efforts to enable safer and more resilient communities.
I'll provide more details in a minute, but based on our results for the first quarter, we remain confident in our ability to deliver on our earnings guidance for the 21 years in a row, one of the best track records in the industry.
As you can imagine over the past several months we've been engaging at the federal level with legislators and administration officials as executive orders, trade and tariff actions, and pending legislation will likely have impacts on future energy infrastructure. Not surprising to anyone on this call, we're in an unprecedented period of electric demand growth and believe that we need a broad scope of energy resources to meet those needs.
We see increased electric demand from the oil and gas sector. We see demand from residential customer growth, EV adoption, and beneficial electrification across our service territories. We see demand from data centres in Texas, Colorado, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.
In the medium term, we expect to see continued trends towards electrification as well as re onshoring as potential outcome of federal actions. The infrastructure to serve this demand growth needs to be thoughtfully planned as well.
We and many in our industry have been advocating in DC for policies that allow for cost effective and rapid adoption of new energy resources, that includes preservation of tech neutral tax credits, wind, solar storage, and nuclear. Their associated transferability provisions and various loan and grant programs. That includes advocating for sighting, permitting, and other federal actions that would allow for more rapid construction of the assets needed to serve this growing demand.
And that includes advocating for federal actions that can mitigate the potential for wildfires and their associated financial impacts. Additionally, we're paying close attention to ongoing tariffs and other recent federal actions.
As you are all aware, this remains a highly fluid situation. Potentially positively changing as recently as yesterday. On the front, we believe that our base capital plan remains intact, that the impacts are both modest and manageable.
While we're still evaluating, we estimate that roughly 40% to 45% of our capital expenditures are material based with the balance being labour permitting, and other items. And of this percentage, the majority is domestically sourced. There are some notable exceptions though, in particular, our industry has exposure to Chinese tariffs related to battery storage.
In our base capital plan, we only have one significant battery project, which we continue to work to mitigate any risks. But in our longer-term plans, we see a need for more battery and other related energy storage assets.
Based on these recent tariff actions, we expect a relatively rapid evolution of the battery supply chain similar to what we've experienced in solar panels over the last three to four years. We estimate that our total tariff exposure on our $45 billion base capital plan for 2025 to 2029 is approximately 2% to 3%.
And that's before we work through any incremental vendor mitigation actions. We remain confident in our ability to navigate this evolving environment and keep delivering for our customers and investors. We see incredible energy and demand needs across the country.
In total, Xcel Energy anticipates that we will need to deliver between 15 megawatts and 29,000 megawatts of new generation by year end 2031 to serve our customers and communities. During the first quarter, we continue to make progress on --with our various commissions on these needs, which also helps give line of sight to our $10 billion plus incremental investment pipeline.
In February, the Minnesota PUC approved our integrated resource plan settlement for nearly 5,000 megawatts of generation. Included are 720 megawatts of company owned natural gas generation and battery storage and approximately 2,800 megawatts of wind generation which will reuse the transmission interconnect from our Sherco facility.
RFPs for resources that make up the balance of the IRP will work their way through regulatory processes in '25 and '26. Details of which are included in our disclosures and in the attached presentation.
In Texas and New Mexico, our teams continue to evaluate proposals for generation to meet growing demand. As a reminder, we're seeking 5000 megawatts to 10,000 megawatts through a competitive RFP process, including projects being proposed by the company. We're encouraged by the early results and plan to make a recommended filing in Q2.
And in Colorado, we continue to make progress with our energy resource plan filing that we made in October of last year. We're recommending the addition of 5,000 megawatts to 14,000 megawatts of new generation to meet projected sales growth of 3% to 7% per year. The commission decision is expected in the fall of this year.
As part of these resource planning processes, I've been asked to comment on the impacts of recent executive orders on coal plants. Our generation retirement strategy is the product of long-term planning process with state commissions and other stakeholders that seeks to balance energy demand with long-term assets that we need for our customers.
With access to some of the country's best wind and solar resources, as well as incremental natural gas generation, we've demonstrated that we can retire these inefficient and aging coal plants while ensuring reliability and keeping customer bills low. Continue to evaluate the executive orders and work with federal and state agencies as well as our communities and customers on any next steps.
Alongside our access to some of the country's lowest cost renewable resources, our thoughtful investments and focus on continuous improvement. Have helped keep our residential electric bill growth below the rate of inflation for the past decade and among the lowest in the country.
As we continue to grow, the tech neutral and nuclear PTCs have also proven a critical tool for customer affordability. Since 2018, Xcel Energy customers have saved over $5 billion in avoided fuel costs and PTCs from wind generation.
And this year our upper Midwest customers will see an additional benefit of nearly $250 million on their bills from nuclear production tax credits. Continue to actively engage with elected officials in the US House and Senate and key agencies such as DOE to reinforce the critical importance that these incentives play in keeping bills low for our residential and business customers.
We believe that policymakers are aligned in the belief that lowering energy costs for Americans is a key policy objective. We continue to remind them these incentives play an important role in helping us meet that objective.
Xcel Energy also continues to make significant progress to protect our customers and communities and systems from the threats of extreme weather. On the regulatory front in Colorado, we reached a constructive settlement on our updated $1.9 billion wildfire mitigation plan, including a securitization mechanism to manage customer bill impact.
In Texas, we also reached a constructive settlement on our $500 million system resiliency plan. We expect commission decisions in both proceedings by third quarter 2025 and we will continue to prioritize these investments to improve resiliency and reduce risk on our systems.
And on the policy front, we've seen progress with several pieces of constructive wildfire legislation. In Texas, legislation was introduced where material compliance with an approved wildfire mitigation plan provides an affirmative defence to civil liability related to wildfire damage.
In North Dakota, legislation that provides a utility similar protection was passed by both chambers and awaits the governor's signature. We believe these bills could also serve as frameworks in our other states for future legislation.
Looking forward, our focus for 2025 remains unchanged. Excel Energy is working to deliver on our earnings for the 21 year in a row to capture the unprecedented opportunities for growth we laid out in our capital plans, to deliver on our incremental capital opportunities backlog advance our clean energy leadership and raise the bar on delivering a compelling experience for our customers in order to make energy work better for them in the communities we serve. With that, let me turn over to Brian.