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Last week, you might have seen that Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SIGI) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.3% to US$87.57 in the past week. Revenues of US$1.3b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$1.76, missing estimates by 7.9%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Selective Insurance Group's six analysts is for revenues of US$5.32b in 2025. This would reflect a satisfactory 6.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 97% to US$7.29. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$5.37b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.42 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for Selective Insurance Group
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$93.00, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Selective Insurance Group analyst has a price target of US$105 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$85.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Selective Insurance Group is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Selective Insurance Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Selective Insurance Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.