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Pennon Group Plc (LON:PNN) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 17% in the last month. But over the last half decade, the stock has not performed well. You would have done a lot better buying an index fund, since the stock has dropped 72% in that half decade.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
Pennon Group isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one would hope for good top-line growth to make up for the lack of earnings.
Over five years, Pennon Group grew its revenue at 14% per year. That's a pretty good rate for a long time period. So it is unexpected to see the stock down 11% per year in the last five years. The truth is that the growth might be below expectations, and investors are probably worried about the continual losses.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. If you are thinking of buying or selling Pennon Group stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts .
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Pennon Group the TSR over the last 5 years was -34%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
Pennon Group shareholders are down 3.4% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 3.3%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 6% doled out over the last five years. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Pennon Group (at least 3 which make us uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.