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We think intelligent long term investing is the way to go. But no-one is immune from buying too high. Zooming in on an example, the S&W Seed Company (NASDAQ:SANW) share price dropped 66% in the last half decade. That's not a lot of fun for true believers. And we doubt long term believers are the only worried holders, since the stock price has declined 57% over the last twelve months. Unfortunately the share price momentum is still quite negative, with prices down 33% in thirty days.
It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.
Check out our latest analysis for S&W Seed
Because S&W Seed made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.
In the last half decade, S&W Seed saw its revenue increase by 1.6% per year. That's not a very high growth rate considering it doesn't make profits. This lacklustre growth has no doubt fueled the loss of 11% per year, in that time. We want to see an acceleration of revenue growth (or profits) before showing much interest in this one. When a stock falls hard like this, some investors like to add the company to a watchlist (in case the business recovers, longer term).
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that S&W Seed shareholders are down 57% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 4.6%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 11% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for S&W Seed that you should be aware of.