SixSigma Networks Mexico, S.A. de C.V. -- Moody's confirms KIO's B2 rating; negative outlook

Rating Action: Moody's confirms KIO's B2 rating; negative outlook

Global Credit Research - 17 Aug 2020

New York, August 17, 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today confirmed SixSigma Networks Mexico, S.A. de C.V.'s (KIO) B2 corporate family rating and the B2 senior unsecured rating on its global notes due 2025. The outlook is negative. This action concludes the review for downgrade started on 27 March 2020.

RATINGS RATIONALE

"Today's action mainly reflects our view that, although the coronavirus pandemic continues to pose risks for KIO, its effect in operating metrics will be milder than what we anticipated at the outset of the virus outbreak" said Sandra Beltrán, VP Senior Analyst of Moody's. However, KIO's credit profile also incorporates weak liquidity given high cash burn and short-term maturities related with bank debt. Moreover, the negative outlook incorporates our concerns around KIO's cash collection over the following months as well as its exposure to contracts with government entities. Accordingly, the Mexican government is KIO's main counterparty, accounting for close to 50% of its revenues, which exposes the company to increased risks of payment delays and of delays in public contracts renewals.

We forecast real GDP to contract by 7% in 2020, but there are substantial downside risks, with growth potentially contracting between 1-3 percentage points more in the event of a weaker recovery in the second half of the year, or if lock-down measures are reinstated. While we expect positive quarter-on-quarter growth in the third quarter, it will be driven by net exports as domestic demand remains subdued in 2020. Export-oriented and larger firms will be among the better performers in terms of the immediate recovery, supported by the US economic reopening. KIO will indirectly benefit from such trends as a high percentage of its revenues are related with blue chip corporate accounts.

In 2021, domestic demand will pick up as labor indicators recover and families increase consumption. We also expect more fiscal impulse given the fact that 2021 is an election year. However, investment will remain sluggish and re-hiring decisions will likely continue to be delayed. As a result, there will not be a strong rebound in 2021. We expect real GDP growth of 2.2% in 2021.

KIO's B2 ratings continue to reflect its position as the leading independent data center operator in Mexico, offering a wide range of IT solutions for private and public customers. The company is well positioned to compete for large contracts to provide solutions to firms and government related entities. Moreover, the mission critical nature of most of the services it provides reduces the probability of large cancellations. On the other hand, the ratings incorporate KIO's weak liquidity and revenue concentration in Mexico, with a particularly large exposure to the Government of Mexico. Additionally, the rating takes into consideration the strong competition, relatively high capital intensity and large working capital movements, which constrain free cash flow generation, and the company's still weak operating margin.