For years, investors in South Korea have become accustomed to belligerence and regular missile tests from the country’s hostile northern neighbor, but now there’s a new factor in their regional risk assessments — U.S. President Donald Trump.
Jolts to financial markets from North Korea’s military provocations are frequent but were until recently contained by an implicit expectation that global diplomatic efforts could limit Pyongyang’s aggression.
Now, however, there is as much market anxiety about Trump‘s unrestrained Tweets and a hawkish White House response as there is about North Korean agitations.
Since Trump‘s election in November, price reactions to North Korean long-range missile tests in credit and currency derivatives, typically used by traders to hedge geopolitical risk, have been distinctly sharper.
“Trump has moved markets and China more within months than (Barack) Obama in eight years,” said Cliff Tan, East Asian head of global markets research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.
The reclusive North Korea has conducted five nuclear tests and a series of missile launches in defiance of U.N. resolutions for decades as it is still at war with South Korea after the 1950-53 conflict ended in a truce, not a peace treaty.
Before Trump‘s election, missile tests came with such regularity that markets learned to shrug them off.
This year, the options market shows the cost of insuring investments against North Korean-related risks has surged, with 3-month protection against a drop in the won, for example, reaching a high of 231 basis points in mid-April, double the levels six months earlier.
This spike came as the U.S. diverted a warship towards the Korean Peninsula and showed off its strike capability in Syria, which it conducted just as Trump met with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.
The cost of owning the option to sell the won in April was the highest it had been since August 2015, when the two Koreas were in a tense military standoff.
“It’s the Trump-on-stage reaction,” a currency trader in Seoul said. “Trump‘s hard line approach, and his past crazy comments on everything from the Mexico-wall to Syria policies have created a whole new range of uncertainties for traders investing here.”
Pricing in Trump
Despite heightened geopolitical tensions, South Korea’s main asset marketshave performed well this year with the won and Kospi stock benchmark up 4.6% and 17.4%, respectively, on robust exports and an upbeat outlook on second quarter corporate earnings.
The cost of hedging, however, is where investors have felt the pain: options to sell Korean won for dollars were perversely more expensive after Trump‘s November presidential victory than when North Korea conducted its fifth nuclear test two months earlier.