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It's shaping up to be a tough period for Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:VRTX), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$2.8b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 34%, coming in at just US$2.49 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Vertex Pharmaceuticals after the latest results.
After the latest results, the 32 analysts covering Vertex Pharmaceuticals are now predicting revenues of US$11.9b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 7.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Vertex Pharmaceuticals is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$15.10 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$12.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$15.73 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.
Check out our latest analysis for Vertex Pharmaceuticals
The consensus price target held steady at US$500, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Vertex Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$621 and the most bearish at US$330 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Vertex Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 10% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 17% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Vertex Pharmaceuticals is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.