What happens on your smartphone once a US law banning the social media app TikTok takes effect on Sunday?
It will depend on the actions of TikTok parent ByteDance, President Joe Biden, President-elect Donald Trump, and some of the largest tech giants in the US.
TikTok could voluntarily shut down use of the app for US users, as it threatened to do in a new statement Friday night, even though it is not obligated by law to do so.
It said "TikTok will be forced to go dark" without a "definitive" assurance from the Biden administration that the law would not be enforced and the companies that host and distribute the app wouldn't be punished.
Here is what the law actually requires: It will no longer be legal for companies like Apple (APPL) and Google (GOOG, GOOGL) to allow users to download TikTok from their app stores, nor can cloud-storage companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Oracle (ORCL) host the app.
Penalties for violations range up to $5,000 for each access provided to a US user.
The current White House has said that it will be leaving enforcement of the law to the Trump administration, which takes office mid day Monday, but TikTok said those statements aren't enough to assure service providers like Apple and Google that they won't be breaking the law.
A president can push the Jan. 19 deadline by 90 days if TikTok's parent is making progress on a sale of the US operations.
If TikTok decides not to go dark and the law stays in place, its app won’t "magically disappear" from phones, CNET tech reporter Abrar Al-Heeti told Yahoo Finance.
Instead "the practical effect is, in the short run, what's going to happen is new users won't be able to download the app in any of the marketplaces," added Pepperdine University media and intellectual property law professor Victoria Schwartz.
The law upheld by the Supreme Court requires Apple to take the TikTok app off its app store if TikTok is not divested. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar) ·ASSOCIATED PRESS
Over time, if the ban stays in place, TikTok's performance could weaken because TikTok’s parent won’t be able to make app store updates. That becomes more and more problematic, especially as new operating systems are released.
"Now, all of a sudden, TikTok is essentially what we call an orphan program. It's super vulnerable to data breaches, to cyber hacking," Schwartz said.
The immediate worry for TikTok's millions of users, especially small business owners, is whether they'll be able to continue to create content on the platform or save their content if the app is shuttered, Schwartz added.
"In terms of content, under TikTok's licensing agreements, the intellectual property belongs to its content creators," Schwartz said.
Account holders who want to keep their content, she said, should have a plan in place to back it all up. "It doesn't do any good if you own intellectual property rights and it's stored only somewhere in the TikTok universe."
If TikTok does in fact go dark on Jan. 19, it plans to give users an option to download all their data so that they can take a record of their personal information, according to Reuters.
It could also later restore service for US users if the ban is ever reversed.
What Trump could do
Friday's decision likely leaves the fate of TikTok in the hands of President-elect Donald Trump, who promised to "save TikTok" and had asked the nation's highest court to suspend the divest-or-be-banned deadline. Trump takes office on Jan. 20.
"It ultimately goes up to me, so you're going to see what I'm going to do," Trump said in an interview with CNN on Friday. "Congress has given me the decision, so I'll be making the decision."
One possible option for Trump under the current law is that he determines that a "qualified divestiture" of TikTok's US operations has in fact taken place, a determination that the president has the leeway to make under the new law.
"Congress explicitly gave the president authority to certify that a [qualified] divestiture has taken place," said James Grimmelmann, professor at Cornell Law School.
"Trump could certify that TikTok has divested, whether it's true or not."
But such a scenario "requires buy-in from both TikTok and ByteDance, which has said it does not intend to sell," added Sarah Kreps, Cornell University professor of government and law.
Trump is reportedly mulling other unconventional ways to save TikTok from the impending US ban, including an executive order that would push out enforcement of the new law by months.
The order being considered by Trump, as reported first by the Washington Post and confirmed by other media outlets, would suspend enforcement of the TikTok law for 60 to 90 days.
Last November Elon Musk speaks with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump at a viewing of the launch of the sixth test flight of the SpaceX Starship rocket in Brownsville, Texas. Brandon Bell/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo ·Reuters / Reuters
Any executive order from Trump delaying enforcement of the law would create a new legal dilemma for the tech giants that are required by law to put the TikTok ban into effect.
Trump could ask his attorney general not to enforce the law — his nominee Pam Bondi didn’t commit to enforcing it when questioned by lawmakers this week. But Apple and Google still have to weigh whether that’s a risk they want to take.
There are less risky paths for Trump to take. He could push Congress to overturn the law or to encourage lawmakers to pass a law extending the Jan. 19 deadline. This week, Sen. Ed Markey did introduce a bill that would extend the deadline by 270 days, according to a statement.
He could also help find a buyer for the US operations, or even a piece of it, which would allow TikTok to avoid the ban. Chinese government officials, according to reports by Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, have discussed selling the US business to Elon Musk, the owner of X.
The officials would prefer to keep TikTok under ByteDance ownership, according to the media reports, but have discussed the sale to Musk as among their contingency plans.
There are other possible buyers too. Investor and “Shark Tank” star Kevin O’Leary told Yahoo Finance last week that he and a consortium of business professionals led by billionaire Frank McCourt Jr. are willing to pay up to $20 billion for TikTok, calling it a "legacy opportunity.”
Trump said in a post Friday on Truth Social that he had spoken with Chinese President Xi Jinping about TikTok and other topics.
"It is my expectation that we will solve many problems together, and starting immediately."
TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew said Friday that “I want to thank President Trump for his commitment to work with us to find a solution that keeps TikTok available in the United States."
