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Laura, let's talk about, uh, the other big news coming out of, uh, Cupertino yesterday, and that was the new lineup of iPhones, the iPhone 16. We also got a new watch, new AirPods. Let's focus specifically, first, on what's on the screen right now, the iPhone, the new iPhone 16. Judging by the title of your note and reading your quick reaction, it doesn't seem like you're too impressed. Why is that?

You know, not ready for prime time. Look, in fairness, um, GenAI is like, you know, 15 months old. And the best apps on the Apple iPhone are made by third parties, not by Apple. So they aren't there yet. So, so this is just too early. They're not even going to have Apple intelligence on the phone at launch. I just think there's no compelling reason that somebody should run out and buy a new iPhone 16. You should wait for the 17 because it's going to have either cooler stuff and there'll be more GenAI capability. The one thing Apple did that was smart is they increased their subsidies for trade-ins by like 20 or 30%. So it's, it's like a couple hundred bucks if you want to trade in an old iPhone like iPhone 11 and more recent um into a new iPhone. So it's like free. But I would wait if it was me. I just don't think compelling about it. It's got new colors and it's thinner and it's made of titanium and the camera's better as it is every year. I, I would say wait a year until we get some real GenAI innovation on the next iPhone. But the one being delivered on, in 10 days, not that interesting.

You know, I'm just looking at a roundup from both yourself as well as some of the other colleagues in the industry talking about this September event. Key Bank saying the September event was a modest negative, lack of positive surprises. Similar for Morgan Stanley, no major surprises. Bernstein saying it was more evolutionary than revolutionary. And we just heard your commentary there. But this all comes back to this super cycle and how much that plays into the guidance for Apple. From your estimation, what percentage of that install base would need to really go out, get this new product for that super cycle to come to fruition here?

So, I mean, I think, I think over the next four years, I would expect every single person in the iPhone ecosystem to replace their iPhone because they're aging out. So the question is when that starts happening, because then we get overdelivery of earnings per share. So I just don't think it's going to happen this year, so we're going to have another year of anemic growth, single digit growth, and this, and the stock is expensive. So I think that that, I think estimates will come down as a result of this, and I don't see a lot of people upgrading. I think they'll wait a year. And then the, and then the entire iPhone ecosystem will replace itself. And that, like, let me call it a library replacement cycle, which is what we call it in the film business when you have a new technology, that's interesting because that library, that, that iPhone replacement cycle will drive two years of over-delivered earnings, um, and that will be interesting. But I don't think it will start this month in this September. It will start maybe next month, next year.

Laura, when it comes to the announcements that we did get from the watch and from the AirPods, talk to us about whether or not, and I believe it's yes, just judging from your note here, but whether or not you see that locking more consumers into Apple's ecosystem and how big of a driver that's ultimately going to be here in the near term.

Right. I thought that the watch, so the watch and the AirPods pivoted towards strongly towards health, which I think is really interesting because strategically it's trying to make the iOS ecosystem a must have, not a nice to have, especially for older demographics. So they're doing more and more things that use that all of the data that you have on that handheld computer called an iPhone, and they're using it to track sleep apnea, which is apparently undiagnosed in 80% of the world's population, according to Apple. And similarly, hearing loss, which is undiagnosed in 75% of the world's population. So to the extent you become more dependent on that device for your health issues and all of that data is privacy locked in your device, that is a really interesting competitive advantage and competitive positioning for the iOS ecosystem and their ancillary products. So if you get somebody, if you convince somebody to buy a new Apple watch because they want to have, they worry they have sleep apnea, and you wear it to sleep, that gets them to then backwardly integrate into the iPhone or stay in the iPhone ecosystem longer. So these ancillary products do create ecosystem lock-in for Apple, even if they're doing sort of a bad job on their iPhone specifically.