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After several months of downward movement, Bitcoin may be poised for a historic post-election rally. A new report out from Standard Chartered says that a Trump win could fuel Bitcoin to new heights by year end, though the largest cryptocurrency should see all-time highs regardless of the election outcome. So just how high could Bitcoin go? Let's bring in Jeff Kendrick, who is the head crypto research at Standard Chartered. All right, take us into what the expectations are here in

either outcome for the election, for at least the top seat in the balloting.

Absolutely. Thanks, Brad. So, I sent a report the last couple of days. I think we go to fresh all-time highs by the end of this year, no matter what happens um in the US election. It would be relatively clear that a Trump presidency should be more positive, given he's been relatively constructive on Bitcoin in particular, but also the broader digital assets space over the last couple of years. So in his victory scenario, I predict we go to 125,000 for Bitcoin by the end of this year. In the Harris scenario, again, I think we do go higher, but to about 75,000 by the end of this year. And that's because Harris is definitely not President Biden. So President Biden has been quite negative on the sector the last few years. Earlier this year, in May, uh President Biden vetoed the SAB 121 repeal bill that had passed through the house and the Senate. So I think now that the sector has become politicized, if you like, it'd be very difficult for a then President uh Harris to do a similar repeal uh to what President uh Biden has done. So, again, a somewhat positive story, but a much more positive outcome in a President Trump 2.0.

And Jeff, we know that uh former President Trump has been supportive or saying that he will be supportive if he were to be elected. I'm curious how you view that then playing out on a regulatory basis and how then we get, or how quickly we could get, if it's 125,000 by the end of the year, then what does 2025 look like?

So so markets will normally run ahead of themselves, which is uh by the end of this year we'll have no changes of course because President Trump 2.0 will only take uh the White House in in late January. But markets will be looking forward to a few likely outcomes. Um the first very likely, I suspect, would be the removal of SAB 121, which uh restricts some US banks uh dealings in spot and other custody type issues in the digital asset space. So I suspect that will go. I think it might go anyway under Harris, but almost certainly under Trump. You'd very likely see a change at the top of the SEC. The SEC under Gary Gensler has been also very negative on the sector in the last few years. Uh although we did see a little bit of a uh a a pair back of that late last week uh around the security type issue. Uh But that probably would be removed as well. You'll probably see more ETFs relatively quickly. Solana, I would say would be the most likely third one. So that's probably the big ticket, let's say regulatory changes. And given what's happening more broadly in other asset markets, I suspect it makes sense to be buying Bitcoin and other digital assets anyway. Specifically, you've now finally started to see the US Treasury curve, albeit very, very slightly, 10 year yields are above two year yields for the first time for a number of quarters now. And that's a marginally positive story. Within that, as well, you've got inflation expectations up a bit, whereas real yields are down a bit. So again, that should be helping at the margin. And I suspect next month we'll probably also get a more positive outlook on the ETF inflows to Bitcoin, which have been very, very soft through the summer months, for about 17 billion dollars so far this year. I suspect those inflows pick up again into the fourth quarter. So each of those stories should see it's higher, if it's a Trump victory, quite a lot higher, up to 125 year end. Next year, I think 200,000 by the end of next year, no matter who's in the White House.

And then Jeff, just with the Fed expected to cut rates next or tomorrow, excuse me, um how does that then just bolster the case, and I guess how much of that then is going to fuel some of this optimistic outlook?

It definitely helps. So finally the Fed are going to join other central banks and start cutting rates. Obviously the markets are expecting 50 basis points tomorrow. Um your previous guest, Eric, was talking about um the detail of that. Clearly the detail will be important for digital assets and Bitcoin specifically as well. I'm watching what the two's 10 curve does. So if the two's 10 curve steepens up more than it is now, and so by which you'd probably need the Fed to cut 50 and guide the market to continue to expect a lot of rate cuts over the next number of meetings, um you'll probably see that yield curve steepen up. But normally a slightly steeper yield curve is better for Bitcoin and other digital assets uh more broadly.

If I heard you correctly a moment ago, you just said 200,000 by the end of the next year, no matter who wins the White House. So why the immediate dispersion, at least in the modeling, uh where you're seeing 75k by the end of this year under Harris win and then 125k after uh and if of uh in the case of a Trump win?

I suspect the market will initially sell Bitcoin on a Harris victory. Um I'd be I'd be a buyer into any dips, but I suspect the market may be negative uh on what a Harris administration might do given where the Democratic party has been for the past few years. But I suspect the reality once she was in seat uh early next year might actually end up being okay for the industry. We'll probably still get changes at the top of the SEC. We'll probably still get some of those uh regulations, like SAB 121, removed, probably still get some ETFs. So market expectation, let's call it for the first three to six months post-election could be negative in terms of what she's going to do, but I suspect we'll actually end up in the same place anyway, because by the end of next year I'd expect ETFs, SAB 121 gone, etcetera.

All right, Jeff Kendrick, head of crypto research at Standard Chartered. Thanks so much for hopping on with us here today.

Pleasure.