China has 'unleashed' 'monetary fiscal bazooka': KraneShares CIO

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The Hang Seng (^HSI) ended the day lower after 13 straight days of gains following a wave of stimulus measures aimed at bolstering the country's struggling economy.

KraneShares CIO Brendan Ahern joins Morning Brief to discuss the stimulus efforts and the outlook for China stocks.

"We've seen the monetary fiscal bazooka unleashed, really geared to supporting the real estate sector, which obviously has depressed prices, have really weighed on consumer confidence, domestic consumption... You're also seeing outright the PBoC (People's Bank of China) and CSRC (China Securities Regulatory Commission) — their version of the SEC — saying we'll give insurance companies, mutual fund families, brokerage firms, 500 billion RMB to buy stocks. If that doesn't get the stock market up, we'll give them another 500 billion," Ahen says of the stimulus measures.

However, he notes that there still hasn't been a clear articulation of fiscal policy. "What are they going to do in terms of its consumption vouchers? What are the things they're going to do to get domestic consumption up?" he asks. He hopes the People's Bank of China will offer more clarity over the next several weeks, which could offer more good news for markets.

00:00 Speaker A

Hong Kong stocks taking a little bit of a breather today. This after 13 straight days of gains, following a wave of stimulus measures aimed at bolstering the country's lagging economy to discuss what's next for stocks in the region. We've got Brendan Ahern, who's the Creanshares CIO. Here with us in studio, great to have you here live and living color. All right, so, Brendan, you know, as we're thinking about the broader stimulus that's been put into effect in the region, and the companies that have been beneficiaries very early on, where do you see this permeating even further from here?

00:46 Brendan Ahern

Yeah, I think the key, Brad, is that we've seen the, uh, monetary fiscal bazooka unleashed, really geared to supporting the real estate sector, which obviously has, uh, depressed prices have really weighed on, uh, consumer confidence, domestic consumption, two-thirds of urban household wealth and real estate. You're also seeing outright this, uh, PBOC and CSRC, their version of the SEC, saying we'll give insurance companies, mutual fund families, brokerage firms, 500 billion RMB to buy stocks. If that doesn't get the stock market up, we'll give them another 500 billion. What we haven't seen yet is actually the articulation of the fiscal policy. What are they going to do in terms of its consumption vouchers? What are the things they're going to do to get domestic consumption up? I think that gets articulated over the next several weeks. So we have a lot more good news coming potentially.

02:09 Speaker A

Brendan, how critical is that just in terms of this outperformance narrative? Because there has been a number of people that have come out, a number of investors even on this show, or strategists coming out saying that what we've heard so far is not enough to really reignite some of that growth within China. Do you think that's true at this point?

02:36 Brendan Ahern

Um, I mean, I, I love the skepticism. I love the people still on the sidelines. I love all the people still underweight because this is a supertanker shifting, right? The Chinese economy struggled the last several years. Investors exceedingly overweight just two weeks ago, we had the Bank of America mutual fund, uh, survey, number one position, mag 7, number two, short China. So, so we've only really seen the touch of the fast money crowd, the proverbial hedge fund crowd, pivot back into the space. Think about all of the Q3, um, investment committee reviews, board meetings, trustees, to, to move investor sentiment towards China or really, really in the very, very early innings. And then I think you, you had the high probability of better news coming, right? Instead of looking through the rear view mirror, let's look through the windshield.

While JPMorgan has warned investors about the risks of chasing the rally given its high valuations, Ahern argues it's still in the "very, very early innings." With more information from Chinese officials expected, the rally could continue. He adds, "Instead of looking through the rearview mirror, let's look through the windshield."

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This post was written by Melanie Riehl